On the cryptocurrency stage, Solana (SOL) has always been a high-profile presence. On January 19, 2025, SOL hit a high of $295, and it was in full swing for a while, as if it was announcing the return of the king. However, just one month later, on February 19, it plummeted to $160, with an almost halved drop. This dramatic change not only caught investors off guard, but also triggered fierce discussions in the market about whether the bull market has ended.
The sword of Damocles, which was liquidated by FTX, was hanging high. On March 1, 11.2 million SOLs were about to be unlocked, worth up to US$2.06 billion, accounting for 2.29% of the total circulation. Looking back at the liquidation after the FTX crash in 2023, institutions such as Galaxy, Pantera and Figure took over a large number of SOLs at low prices, and now they have huge floating profits. Once sold, the market selling pressure will be unbearable. Moreover, the current SOL trading volume and on-chain activity continue to decline, the buying capacity is weak, and liquidity may be difficult to digest this wave of selling. At the same time, SOL's destruction mechanism has dropped sharply due to the sharp decline in on-chain transaction activity, which makes it difficult to play a buffering role in the giant whale selling wave, which makes SOL likely to face a deeper price pullback.
The Meme coins that once made Solana's glory have now become the culprit that has dragged it down. The LIBRA incident broke out, and the behind-the-scenes trading team accurately removed the pool and arbitrage, absorbing 107 million US dollars in just a few hours, and a large number of retail investors lost all their money. This not only exposes the speculative bubble of the Solana ecosystem, but also triggers a crisis of trust in the market. Encryption KOL directly points to the existence of a chain of interests in the Solana ecosystem and may face legal crises in the future. After the Meme coin craze faded, Solana's on-chain liquidity and DEX trading volume shrank rapidly, and the market's focus also shifted from its high-speed performance to whether it can get rid of the speculative ecosystem.
According to the data, after Solana's Meme coin craze subsided, Jupiter's trading volume plummeted from a high of $1.9 billion on January 19 to $282 million in mid-February, a drop of more than 85% in just one month. The overall on-chain transaction volume of Solana's main network has also dropped sharply from 163M to 13M, returning to the pre-Meme boom level. The advantage of transaction fees is no longer there, and the technical dividend becomes a "backlash". The rise of the Ethereum Layer2 ecosystem has smoothed out Solana's low-cost advantage, on-chain revenue has plummeted, and the supply and demand balance has been broken, accelerating price decline. The liquidity of funds is exhausted, giant whales flee and small amounts of funds are waiting and watching, the market depth is declining, the decline of SOL lacks strong buying support, and volatility is intensifying.
Technically, the SOL daily chart forms a downward trend of "low point down + high point down", MACD shows a dead cross, RSI is below 40 for a long time, and market sentiment is extremely pessimistic. If it falls below the key support level of $180, it may further slide to $150 or even lower. On-chain holding data also shows that long-term holders have accelerated their positions since February, and the growth rate of new addresses has slowed down significantly, and the market has changed from a bull market for incremental funds to a game of existing funds. In addition, after the LIBRA incident, Solana may face stricter regulatory scrutiny. Against the backdrop of stricter supervision of the crypto market in various countries, chaos such as Meme currency manipulation and insider trading may become the focus of policy crackdowns, and Solana will find it difficult to protect itself.
So, is the bull market really over? To determine whether a bull market ends, we cannot rely solely on the trend of a single currency. From the overall perspective of the crypto market, although mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin also have fluctuations, there has not yet been a clear signal of a trend reversal. Characteristics of a bull market usually include overall market upward, optimistic investor sentiment, and continuous influx of new funds. At present, although the market has panic due to the SOL plunge, in the long run, the development logic of the cryptocurrency market has not fundamentally changed. The passage of Bitcoin spot ETFs has attracted a large amount of capital inflows, and public chains such as Ethereum are also continuing to develop and innovate, market infrastructure is constantly improving, and institutional investors' participation is gradually increasing.
For investors, in such a market environment, they must first remain calm and rational. SOL's plunge reminds us that the cryptocurrency market is full of risks and no investment should be overly concentrated. Diversified portfolios are an effective way to diversify risks, and can reasonably allocate funds to different types of cryptocurrencies of different market capitalizations, as well as other traditional asset classes. At the same time, we must pay close attention to market trends and project fundamentals. For the Solana ecosystem, we need to observe whether it can solve the current trust crisis, repair market confidence, and find new growth engines, such as making breakthroughs in technological innovation and application expansion. Before making investment decisions, fully study the project's technical strength, team background, community activity and other factors to avoid blindly following the storm.
Although SOL's sharp decline caused market volatility, it was too early to judge that the bull market ended. The future of the cryptocurrency market is full of uncertainty. Investors should move forward cautiously in risks and opportunities, and make investment decisions with a rational and professional attitude, so that they can move forward steadily in this challenging crypto wave.