作者：Odaily 星球日报

OKX market data shows that in the past 24 hours, BTC experienced a strong V-shaped rebound, briefly approaching the important $70,000 mark, and is currently trading at $68,000, a 6.1% increase in the last 24 hours. ETH and SOL also performed very strongly, showing significant gains following Bitcoin's rebound. ETH briefly broke through $2,100, with a maximum 24-hour increase of 15%, and is currently trading at $2,050; SOL briefly broke through $90, and is currently trading at $87, an 8.1% increase in the last 24 hours. Market sentiment has clearly improved.All three have now reached key resistance levels; watch whether they can hold their ground and continue their upward momentum.

In the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.63%, the S&P 500 rose 0.81%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.26%. The crypto sector collectively strengthened, with Circle rising 35.47%, recovering a month-long loss in a single day.

In the derivatives sector, the total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was $579 million, of which $115 million were long positions and $464 million were short positions. The largest single liquidation occurred in Hyperliquid - BTC-USD worth $10.4154 million.

In terms of funding, according tososovalueData shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $250 million yesterday, potentially ending the previous streak of...Five-week net outflowThe situation is such that, according to Lookonchain, in the past 5 hours, BlackRock's Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT saw a net inflow of 1,225 BTC, worth $83.92 million.

"Bitcoin should be worth at least $150,000."

This morning, the crypto industry was rocked by a single sentence: "It's common knowledge that Bitcoin should now be worth at least $150,000."

The reason is that the lawsuit filed by Terraform Labs liquidators against prominent U.S. market maker Jane Street has unleashed a months-long storm of market speculation. (A post in...)A long article that spread rapidly on X(Author Justin Bechler) connects three clues, pointing to Jane Street systematically suppressing Bitcoin prices through its privileged position, causing them to fall far below their "right" level.

The core allegations are divided into three acts: FirstAllegations of "insider secrets" surrounding the collapse of Terra/LUNAThe lawsuit alleges that the company obtained insider information through a private group called "Bryce's Secret," created by former intern Bryce Pratt, allowing it to exit at the peak and accelerate the market crash. The lawsuit claims these trades "could not have been made without non-public information" and seeks damages.

SecondThe "timely sell-off" pattern at 10 AM Eastern TimeAlmost every trading day, Bitcoin experiences a bizarre 2-3% plunge around this specific time, precisely liquidating leveraged long positions, only to recover a few hours later. On-chain analysis from Glassnode and other sources shows that this algorithmic selling pressure is highly regular. Coincidentally, this "10 AM plunge" pattern briefly disappeared after the Terra lawsuit was exposed; however, it returned once the hype died down.

ThirdSuper bullish on the surface, but actually appears to be a massive short position.Publicly available 13F filings show that Jane Street holds over 20 million shares of IBIT (whose market value once approached $2.5 billion), and its MSTR holdings surged by 473%, seemingly indicating a very bullish stance. However, industry insiders claim that while Jane Street appears to be accumulating a large amount of Bitcoin spot inventory through ETF creation/redemption mechanisms, it is actually likely using this as a basis to issue a large number of Bitcoin options and maintain directional neutrality through derivatives hedging. This is equivalent to continuously injecting synthetic Bitcoin supply into the market, thereby weakening the scarcity narrative of Bitcoin and creating upward resistance and anchoring for the spot price in the long term.

The storm sparked by this statement continues to escalate, and the veracity of Terraform liquidators' accusations against Jane Street remains to be seen, pending a court ruling. However, this controversy has provided an outlet for market sentiment.

For more insider details, please refer to the article recently published by Odaily Planet Daily.From Terra's collapse to the "10 o'clock blowout," how did Jane Street manipulate markets on two continents?》

However, Monad co-founder Keone Hon also stated that the conspiracy theory that Jane Street suppressed Bitcoin to below $150,000 is untenable. Hedging a short IBIT position with long futures means that, on average, other parties will eventually hold short futures positions, which they must hedge with long spot positions. The sum of all positions in the market (converted to delta) always equals the total supply of Bitcoin (approximately 20 million). Of course, any party can unilaterally decide to short, thereby increasing their long positions. In short...Hedging between futures and ETFs means that there are always equal positions in the market. The market may be distorted in the short term, but it is difficult to violate the law of supply and demand in the long term.

The two financial reports boosted market confidence.

If conspiracy theories provided emotional tension in the market, then what truly drove prices up might have been two better-than-expected earnings reports.

First of all CircleThe company delivered an exceptionally strong Q4 and full-year 2025 financial report. Q4 revenue reached 770 million, representing a year-on-year increase of [missing data]. 77%The month-on-month growth was 4.1%, exceeding the market's previous expectation of 749 million. Most importantly...EPS (earnings per share) also far exceeded expectations.Profitability improved significantly, primarily benefiting from the recovery in USDC size and interest income generated by the high-interest-rate environment. Meanwhile,The significant year-on-year increase in USDC circulation and the continued expansion of on-chain transaction volume indicate that the structural demand for stablecoins remains on the rise.This is the core reason why the market gave a positive response. It at least proves that the panic caused by the previous sell-off by whales was more about position rebalancing, but the funds are still within the crypto industry. They may just be waiting for the right opportunity to "buy the dip".

The second financial report comes fromNvidiaIts Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion and data center revenue of $62.3 billion both exceeded market expectations, and it once again gave an optimistic quarterly revenue forecast, guiding to around $78 billion, higher than the market's estimate of $73 billion, indicating that the large-scale construction of artificial intelligence computing is still on track.

This is crucial for the AI narrative; the market needs Nvidia to demonstrate that the AI investment boom can translate into sustained financial gains and alleviate concerns about an AI bubble.

Organizational Structure and Mining Company Changes

Subtle changes have already occurred on the demand side.

University endowment fundsAmid declining returns on traditional assets, investors are adjusting their strategies and starting to allocate to cryptocurrency ETFs. Harvard and Brown Universities have disclosed holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in their latest 13F filings. Although relatively small compared to their overall portfolio sizes, this demonstrates that digital assets are moving from the fringes of institutional finance into the mainstream toolbox.

Amidst the continuous decline in Bitcoin prices, many small and medium-sized DAT (Digital Bitcoin Trusts) have capitulated, choosing to sell their Bitcoin holdings or terminate their purchase plans. Strategy appears to be the only major bullish force in the market, but DDC Enterprise Limited announced this week that it has purchased an additional 50 Bitcoins, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 2118. This marks the company's consecutive...Week 7They have increased their Bitcoin holdings and currently rank 34th among global listed companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings.

The unusual movements in the mining sector are also noteworthy. While Bitcoin prices have fallen, several mining companies have seen their stock prices rise against the trend. For example, TeraWulf's stock price has risen 31% this month, Cipher Mining has risen 8%, Hut 8 has risen 6%, and Core Scientific has remained largely unchanged. Analysts believe that Bitcoin mining companies are currently among the most heavily shorted targets by hedge funds. If fundamentals improve, it could trigger a short-covering rally. Furthermore, these companies have secured long-term and attractive power contracts.It has structural advantages in energy costs.Its strategic value extends beyond simple Bitcoin mining; capital is flowing towards..."Structural winners," while traditional mining companies may face the risk of being marginalized..

Conclusion

This V-shaped rebound may not be the start of a trend reversal, but it has accomplished something more important: it has provided a new explanatory framework for the market. When the market once again has reasons to explain price increases, risk appetite can be rebuilt.

Author | Dingdang