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观点:关税压力减轻为美联储降息打开空间,经济衰退风险已「显著降低」
逃离重力
逃离重力
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5 月 13 日,摩根士丹利首席投资官威尔逊(Mike Wilson)认为,此前由特朗普引发的历史性抛售已告终结。他重申标普 500 指数年底将站上 6500 点的预测(较当前有 12% 涨幅),并指出关税压力减轻为美联储降息打开空间,这将直接利好股票等风险资产。


威尔逊称,「如果关税威胁减弱,美联储就能重新平衡双重使命。虽然增长前景稍显乐观,但政策天平可能更倾向刺激经济而非抑制通胀。」他特别强调,随着美元走弱及中美谈判推进,经济衰退风险已「显著降低」,企业盈利预期随之改善:「从评级调整角度看,下半年表现很可能超越预期,毕竟上半年实在太糟糕了。」

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