Hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates believes that President Trump and his administration's efforts to reshape the global economy are likely to harm economic and financial assets.

Co-CIO Bob Prince, Greg Jensen and Karen Karniol-Tambour said on Wednesday that the world is undergoing a “fast turn”Modern Merchantism"The process, which may have negative consequences for the economy.

"We expect a policy-induced economic slowdown," the chief investment officers wrote.The possibility of a recession is rising。”

Bridgewater Fund's comments come as stock markets are already hit by Trump's tariff policies. The S&P 500 has fallen this year8.3%, It has fallen since Trump launched the so-called "reciprocal tariff" on April 25.2%. Many tariffs have been suspended since then, but tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated.

Outside the stock market, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar have also declined in recent weeks. Some Wall Street experts believe that this general decline may be a sign that foreign investors are "removing" the United States during the Trump era.

Bridgewater Fund hints at this view, saying policy changes giveU.S. assets relying on foreign capital inflows bring special risks”。

The combination of economic slowdown and withdrawal of funds from the United States may upend much of the investment common sense in the past decade (U.S. financial assets and economic growth generally outperform other major countries).

Bridgewater special warning,“The sudden change in policy brings abnormal risks to U.S. assets that rely on foreign capital inflows”If economic growth is weak,FedThe four major risk resonances of the inability to save the market, weak stock market performance and the United States' loss of power relative to other regions around the world will overturn the past decade“US-owned”investment logic.

Even Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank, one of the most bullish strategists seen by Wall Street in early 2025, is retracting his optimistic forecast for the stock market.

The bank's chief U.S. equity and global strategist cuts its S&P 500's year-end target from 7,000 to 6,150 points. The new forecast means the benchmark index is only up 4.6% from the beginning of 2025, while the old target predicts about 19% upside potential.

In early 2025, Chadha ranked second highest in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey. The only strategist with higher forecasts is Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, who also cuts his year-end target from 7100 to 5950.

"While some attempts to ease tensions have been made, there are no credible concessions in trade policy, while macro concerns are increasing," Chadha wrote. He noted that he believes the S&P 500 will be in4600 points to 5600 pointstrade within a wide range. The upper limit of the range has a 4.8% upside from Wednesday's closing price, while the lower limit means that the decline is close to14%。

"We believe that a successful fiscal plan could trigger a round of gains, but as the impact of tariffs will offset any direct benefits that businesses receive, we believe this round of gains will beA brief。”

Chadha also cuts his 2025 S&P 500 EPS to sharply from $282$240, which means a decrease from 20245%. He added that Trump’s approval ratings need to drop sharply before the administration can truly abandon its protectionist trade stance.

Only when Trump's approval rating "falls below 40% or even mid-35%" can the current administration truly abandon its protectionist trade stance. Chada stressed: "The current support rate is declining slowly as economic growth is stable and inflation is not rising, but this buffer zone is thinning."