According to CME's FedWatch tool, on November 1st, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 63%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 37%.

According to CoinWorld, the market was almost certain that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again in December, but Powell's comments have prompted a rethink. This means that speeches by Fed officials starting next week could be crucial, as Fed governors and regional Fed presidents resume public appearances to lay the groundwork for the key December meeting. Normally, next week would be the week for non-farm payroll data releases. However, with the US government shutdown entering its second month, the usual schedule will be disrupted. The chances of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releasing non-farm payroll data on Friday are quite slim. Fortunately, a large amount of US private sector data will be released next week. Specifically, the often-overlooked JOLTS job openings and Challenger layoffs data will receive due attention. Here are the key events the market will be focusing on this week (all times are Beijing time): Tuesday 01:00, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks; Friday 00:00, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks; Friday 01:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hamak speaks at the Economic Club of New York; Friday 05:30, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speaks; Friday 06:30, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musaleem participates in a fireside chat on monetary policy; Friday 16:00, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks at the ECB Monetary Market Conference.

According to CoinWorld.com on November 1st, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated, "In my view," forecasts indicate another rate cut in December. Restrictive policies pose a risk to the labor market.

According to ZachXBT, George Cottrell, a key advisor to Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, is the mysterious "big spender" behind several key Donald Trump-related Polymarket bets. Cottrell was previously convicted of wire fraud in the United States. Farage's team calls him an "unpaid volunteer," but Cottrell frequently accompanies Farage to various campaign events. Farage previously described Cottrell as "like a son to me." An account linked to Cottrell reportedly placed bets on Polymarket betting on Trump winning the election; this account is currently hoping to profit from the "Trump shaking hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping for 6 to 10 seconds" incident. Furthermore, Farage's increasingly accepting attitude towards cryptocurrencies has led him to claim that the Reform UK is the "only hope" for the cryptocurrency industry.

On November 1st, CoinWorld reported that, according to Ledger Insights, Bank Negara Malaysia has launched a three-year exploration program for real-world asset tokenization, establishing a Digital Asset Innovation Center and an industry working group to solicit feedback on potential use cases ranging from supply chain finance to Islamic finance products. The central bank's latest report outlines a phased implementation plan: proof-of-concept and pilot programs in 2026, followed by expanded trials in 2027. The bank invites industry feedback on use cases by March 1, 2026, but also clearly defines which cases qualify for the experiment.

According to CryptoWorld.com, on November 1st, Elon Musk stated on Joe Rogan's talk show on Friday that Tesla plans to launch a new generation of its high-performance all-electric supercar, the Roadster, by the end of 2025, which may have flight capabilities, describing it as "crazier than all of James Bond's cars combined." Musk said, "My friend Peter Thiel once lamented that there should be flying cars in the future, but we don't. I think if Peter wants a flying car, we should be able to buy one."

According to CoinWorld, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that despite the risk of a government shutdown, the Fed will still have access to a large amount of data. Monetary policy should be guided by this data. He further pointed out that all the data indicates that the correct policy path at present is to continue cutting interest rates.

On November 1st, Bijie.com reported that Elon Musk stated on a podcast that he plans to launch a standalone instant messaging application called "X Chat" to compete with Telegram and WhatsApp, and it is expected to launch in the coming months. "It uses a peer-to-peer encryption system, kind of like Bitcoin. The encryption is very good; we are conducting full-scale testing," Musk added, noting that it will not have any "ad-driven" content. He pointed out that competitors like WhatsApp "target ads based on your chat content."

According to a CNN report, three officials from the US and Europe familiar with the matter revealed that the Pentagon has assessed that providing Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles would not weaken the US military's existing stockpile, and has therefore given the green light to the White House, leaving the final political decision to US President Trump. Earlier this month, Trump made it clear during a working lunch with Ukrainian President Zelensky that he was unwilling to provide the missiles, stating that "we cannot give up the weapons stockpile we need to defend our country." The Joint Chiefs of Staff submitted its assessment report to the White House earlier this month, just as Zelensky was continuing to lobby for the acquisition of the missiles—Ukraine hopes to use their approximately 1,600-kilometer range to more effectively strike deep energy facilities within Russia. Two European officials pointed out that this assessment has encouraged European allies, who believe the US now lacks a legitimate reason to refuse to provide the missiles. It is worth noting that just days before meeting with Zelensky, Trump publicly stated that the US "has a large number of Tomahawk missiles that can be provided to Ukraine."

According to CryptoWorld, US President Trump denied that he had decided to strike military targets in Venezuela, contradicting media reports that he had approved the attack. When asked by reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday whether he had made a decision, Trump briefly replied, "No." Earlier that day, the Miami Herald reported that the Trump administration had decided to attack military facilities in Venezuela, and that the strike could begin at any time. When asked about the report, White House Press Secretary Anna Kelly stated that "anonymous sources have no idea what happened," and emphasized that any official statement would be issued by the president himself.

According to CoinWorld.com, on November 1st, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that stablecoins are an exciting technology, but their use cases still need time to be validated.

According to Bijie.com, on November 1st, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated his support for reforming the Fed's interest rate target.

According to CoinWorld.com, on November 1st, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that he prefers to keep interest rates unchanged this week. There are some initial signs of weakness in the labor market, including layoff announcements. The rate is now close to the estimated neutral interest rate.

According to CryptoWorld, US President Trump stated that he will not attack Venezuela and will not renegotiate with Canada.

According to CoinWorld, Federal Reserve official Logan stated that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week, nor should it cut rates again in December. She pointed out that the labor market is "generally balanced" and does not require immediate support, while inflation appears likely to remain above the 2% target for an extended period. Logan stated, "The current economic outlook does not warrant a rate cut. I don't think a rate cut is necessary this week. Unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected, or that the labor market will cool faster, I would find it difficult to support another rate cut in December." Logan does not have a vote on the Fed's policy-making committee this year. She stated that data from the private sector, state unemployment claims, and the Fed's own network of business and community contacts all provide the central bank with a perspective on the economy, and the overall situation is "far from worrying." Subscribe to Fed Updates

According to CoinWorld, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that he discussed the adoption of a dollar-denominated stablecoin with the Prime Minister of Singapore.

According to CoinWorld, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) has announced the appointment of former Charles Schwab executive JJ Kinahan as Vice President. He will be responsible for leading Cboe's newly formed business unit, as well as the strategy, regulatory coordination, and marketing execution of innovative products, including prediction markets, tokenized instruments, and crypto derivatives.

According to Coinbase.com, on October 31st, Coinbase reported a 55% year-on-year increase in third-quarter revenue, with net profit soaring to $433 million and trading volume reaching $295 billion. CEO Brian Armstrong revealed at the earnings call that the company will showcase details of "equity tokenization and prediction markets" on December 17th, further advancing its "exchange for everything" strategy. In this area, BiyaPay has already achieved cross-industry integration. Users can directly trade US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and futures using USDT, supporting transfers and deposits between multiple currencies including USD, EUR, and HKD. Simultaneously, the platform offers zero-fee cryptocurrency spot contract trading, allowing investors to easily manage diverse assets in a unified account. As Coinbase focuses on on-chaining traditional assets, BiyaPay, through a unified multi-asset entry point, has truly integrated "traditional finance + digital assets," becoming a pioneer in global trading scenarios.

According to CoinWorld, AllUnity, a joint venture between Deutsche Bank and DWS, is expanding its Euro stablecoin EURAU to six major blockchains, including Ethereum and Arbitrum, via the Chainlink cross-chain protocol, and plans to integrate with the institutional blockchain Canton Network. This MiCA-compliant stablecoin aims to improve corporate payment and settlement efficiency and is scheduled for release at the end of July after receiving regulatory approval in Germany.

According to CoinWorld.com, ME reported on October 31 (UTC+8) that the Federal Reserve meeting saw a rare two dissenting votes. Lou Brien, a strategist at Chicago-based DRW Trading, said, "Powell's communication was clumsy, which may indicate that he has lost some control over the committee, or that the committee's opinions are too divided, and he feels he shouldn't impose his will on others. In my view, they will still cut rates in December, based on my idea that the labor market is weaker than it appears."