When the price is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI is frozen at 25°, 180 million contracts quietly flowed out. The market writes "fear" on the candlestick chart, but hides "greed" in the trading volume—183.85 is precisely the "ice-fire line" where bulls and bears clash.
Key Range Structure and Volume Distribution
1. Value Anchor Zone (POC): 193.87
The largest turnover zone in the past two weeks, with 266 million contracts accumulating within 1% of this range, essentially representing the "cost of new major players."
2. High Volume Zone (HVN)
• 184.08-186.34: Directly below the current price, a buffer of 120 million contracts; a break below this level would open up a vacuum zone.
• 192.37-194.63: The first shackle on a rebound, a point where bears exert their strength.
3. Low Volume Gap (LVN)
• 213.46-216.47: Only 1.12 million contracts. A breakout above this level carries a high probability of acceleration and can be considered a "stop-loss zone" for short sellers.
• 222.50-224.76: Another vacuum zone. A break above this level would confirm a trend reversal.
4. 70% Value Zone: 182.57-200.65
The current price is at the lower edge, statistically oversold; however, statistics don't guarantee a bottom, and momentum verification is needed.
Momentum Verification and Dominant Direction
• 183-184 zone: Up volume accounts for 61%, indicating active short-term buying.
• 191-193 zone: Down volume accounts for 64%, making it prone to selling pressure upon rebound.
• Recent 4-hour trading volume is 26% lower than the average, indicating major players are still observing. A breakout requires a volume increase of ≥1.5 times.
Auxiliary Indicators
• Bollinger Bands (1-hour chart): Price is trading near the lower band, opening downwards, and showing no signs of narrowing → downtrend continues.
• 200-day Moving Average (MA200): 194.04, deviating by -5.25%, excessive deviation, indicating a need for mean reversion.
• Open Interest: Increased by 3.64% in 24 hours, but the long/short ratio declined to 1.83 → long positions were reduced more actively, not new short positions were opened.
Market Cycle Judgment: Currently in the middle of a "downward oscillation," without any panic selling volume, this is considered a period of preparation for a bear market rebound, not an absolute bottom.
Trading Strategies (Based on VPVR Range Structure)
1. Short-Term Buy on Trend Pullback (Conservative)
Entry: 183.2±0.3 (LVN upper edge + 15m engulfing pattern)
Stop Loss: 181.7 (Nearest HVN 182.16 outer edge - 0.5×ATR≈1.4)
Target: 189.7 (Upper HVN center)
Risk/Risk Ratio: |189.7-183.2|/|183.2-181.7|=6.5/1.5≈4.3:1
2. Short on Range Breakout (Aggressive)
Entry: Break below 181.0 and 1h closing price ≤ 180.8, Down Volume ≥ 60%
Stop Loss: 182.6 (HVN 182.16 outer edge + 0.5×ATR)
Target: 175.0 (2×ATR) Profit/Loss Ratio: 5.8/1.6 ≈ 3.6:1
3. Value Reversion Against the Trend (Conservative)
Trigger: Price ≥ 200.6 and RSI ≥ 70, Up Volume < 40%
Entry: 201.0
Stop Loss: 202.8
Target: 193.9 (POC)
Profit/Loss Ratio: 7.1/1.8 ≈ 3.9:1
Risk Warnings
• If the long-term support at 181 is breached, it may quickly slide towards 175-170. Long positions must strictly adhere to stop-loss orders.
• Macroeconomic liquidity or sudden regulatory news can easily invalidate the VPVR range. Control single-trade risk to ≤ 1% of account balance.
LP Market Making Recommendation
Range: 182.5-193.9 USDT
Reason: Covers 70% of the value zone + POC, high-volume two-way trading, transaction fee revenue > impermanent loss probability; Withdraw from the pool if the price breaks through 200.65 or falls below 182.5 to prevent one-sided liquidation.
Multi-dimensional Fundamental Overview
• Technology: Solana Firedancer upgrade imminent, theoretical TPS increased to 10x, positive expectations not fully priced in.
• Ecosystem: TVL 4.8 billion USDT, down 12% monthly; DEX volume stable but MEME popularity waning, on-chain activity and price declining in tandem.
• Business: Visa stablecoin pilot still chooses Solana, institutional access remains open.
• Challenges: Multiple outages + SEC's "securities" designation remains unresolved, long-term funds are on the sidelines.
Conclusion: $183 is a confluence of "technically oversold" and "value lower bound," suggesting a small long position is possible. However, the downtrend remains unchanged; reduce positions on any rebound to the $192-$195 resistance zone. A break below $181 warrants a decisive reversal; remain flexible and trade quickly.
Like and follow for real-time updates!
$SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
