若说交易是“赌”，人生又何尝不是一场漫长的“对赌”？ 交易是快棋，落子无悔，下一秒便知盈亏。 人生是慢棋，你下的注，那次孤勇的告白、那份固执的择业、那座倾尽所有的城市，常常要走过许多年，答案才在某个平凡午后，随一杯冷掉的茶，缓缓浮现。 原来此刻的顺遂或困顿，不过是命运延迟送达的筹码。我们早已身在局中，每一次选择，都是对自己未来的下注。 所以，真正重要的不是拒绝“赌”，而是清醒地计算概率、管理风险，让每一次下注，都成为一场勇敢而负责任的奔赴。

Showing off comes with its own set of rules! Sharing strategies and opinions, right or wrong, is welcome as long as it's logical and supported by evidence. You can even send out red envelopes (cash gifts) when you make money; everyone's happy for you. But simply posting profit screenshots without logic or red envelopes is just freeloading and grabbing viewers' attention—that's not respectable. Just now during my live stream, a guy mentioned how much he made, intending for me to praise him. I wasn't going to indulge him: "I send out red envelopes when I make money, and I still send them when the market is bad, and I still send them even when I'm not live streaming. What about you? Aren't you going to do anything?" Well, he deleted his comment… If you can't handle it, don't show off. If you show off, you have to pay the price according to the rules of the game.

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Analyzing trends is relatively simple if you don't obsess over predicting tops and bottoms. When price highs and lows consistently move upwards (HH, HL), the trend is upward; when highs and lows flatten, the market enters a consolidation phase; when prices break below previous lows (LH, LL) and highs and lows continue to move downwards, a downtrend is established. Since the logic is clear, why do most people still trade against the trend? Because "analyzing the market" and "executing trades" are fundamentally different things. Analysis allows you to take a high-level perspective, overlooking the overall picture—the simplest approach is often the best. Executing trades, however, requires delving into the details: finding key levels, waiting for high-risk signals, calculating position risk, and managing your mindset. These steps are tedious, counterintuitive, and indispensable (it's not as exciting as gambling!). Many people don't lack understanding of trends, but rather they can't bear the tedium of following the strict rules step by step within a correct trend. They always want to skip the calculations, avoid waiting, bypass the mental preparation, and get the results directly...

The "Lock A incident"... well... it confirmed an observation I made about the American underclass... Because I've given cigarettes to homeless people at bus stops and food to homeless people living in cemeteries. I think I still have the photos if I look through my old phone.

Some altcoins, represented by $SOL, have returned to their April 2025 price lows, even showing a bullish divergence signal. The signal for a rebound is there; should we act or not...? If you have solid fundamentals, can calculate position sizing, and look for intraday opportunities to trade the rebound. If your fundamentals are weak, and your position size depends on your mood, hoping to make money immediately, otherwise your mindset fluctuates greatly, then it's better to just watch... As for spot trading, the opportunity to buy on the right side hasn't appeared yet...

Looking at the current Bitcoin (BTC) price action, it's like the script for the 2022 bear market is being replayed...

The bull market is over, so please enjoy a piece of my braised beef.

Gold bars, silver bars, memory modules—all roads lead to Rome. Bitcoin gold, Ethereum silver, altcoin copper—all cryptocurrencies end up in the trash.

There are countless profitable strategies in the speculative market, but the one that truly makes you money is likely not the same as your favorite or most desired one. It's like the person you were attracted to in your youth; the person you end up spending your life with is often not the same. So how do you find your path? Not through imagination, but by trying different things to increase your sample size, rather than relying on a single strategy.