This week's macroeconomic data has essentially been released: Tuesday's employment data was revised downward unexpectedly, Wednesday's PPI unexpectedly weakened, and Thursday's CPI was also relatively mild.
Overall, while inflation remains somewhat sticky, the weakening PPI and mild CPI have eased market concerns about future inflation.
Prior to the September 18th interest rate meeting, key economic data has already been released. The market currently generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September, October, and December. Faced with expectations of easing in the second half of the year, risk assets have steadily strengthened. While Bitcoin is slightly weaker than US stocks, the overall market is not expected to fare too badly before the rate cut is implemented.
#BTC is currently attempting to break through and stabilize at 114,300. If it can hold, it could have a chance to further accelerate its rebound, completing a short-term "second wave" rally before the September 18th interest rate decision.
The interest rate meeting is a turning point:
If the dot plot still shows three rate cuts this year, totaling 75 basis points, then the market may briefly pull back after the confirmation of the rate cut, a typical "sell the news" scenario, followed by a short-term correction.
If the dot plot shows three rate cuts this year, totaling 100 basis points, then the pullback caused by "sell the news" may be limited, and instead will fuel expectations of a direct 50 basis point cut in October, further fueling market speculation.
I personally opened a long position around 111,300 and plan to wait for the interest rate to be confirmed on September 18th before deciding to take profits.
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