⚠️ Not just gold and silver, but US software stocks have also crashed, experiencing their worst start to the year in years! As the Nasdaq nears its all-time high, several traditional SaaS companies have seen their biggest weekly declines. The launch of Claude Cowork AI, showcasing unprecedented capabilities and speed of change, has significantly accelerated the divergence in performance between software stocks and other sectors of the tech industry! For the past decade or so, the US software sector has benefited from a triple windfall: 1) Low interest rates → extremely low discount rates → extreme long-term cash flow 2) SaaS model → high gross margins + high renewal rates → the ability to tell a lifetime value story 3) Cloud transformation → the market is willing to pay a premium for certain growth The result is a typical phenomenon: As long as you are a SaaS company + high growth + good ARR—even if you're not profitable, you can still get 15-30 times earnings. However, the emergence of AI has brought the marginal cost of some software functions close to zero, leading to a significant shift in investment— Application-layer SaaS → flowing to AI infrastructure + computing power + chips + platform-level models Following this trend, no matter how cheap the stock price is or how much it falls, there seems to be no reason to hold software stocks at present!

Quite devastating— In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire network have reached $1.681 billion. It appears a significant amount of leverage has been removed, resulting in the deaths of another 270,000 people. The bulls are in deep trouble! In this situation, buying some spot trading is incredibly attractive. In this kind of volatile and highly uncertain environment, please, my friends, do not be foolish enough to use leverage. Get through this boring period; survival is the most important thing. There will be countless opportunities, but you'll lack capital!

⚡️vePENDLE has officially retired, and @pendle_fi has updated the LP incentive model accordingly— The algorithm-based incentive model is now live, and the overall APR for LPs is expected to improve, making it more profitable for everyone to become LPs! This new model primarily changes incentive allocation from "human selection" to "data-driven," focusing on only two metrics: TVL (Total Value Limit) and transaction fees. The algorithm dynamically weights these two metrics, automatically determining where incentives are allocated, requiring no manual intervention. Initially, it prioritizes TVL to attract liquidity; later, it gradually shifts towards transaction fees, rewarding genuine trading activity. Therefore, this model essentially forces LP profitability back to pool selection itself. The higher the trading volume and transaction fees of a pool, the more willing the model is to continuously allocate incentives to it; less popular pools will not be continuously nurtured, and incentives will be automatically withdrawn. This approach not only fundamentally improves incentive efficiency but also reduces waste for Pendle, with an estimated 30% reduction in Pendle emissions. Under the logic of "the strong get stronger," the operational strategy becomes simpler: 👉Focus only on actual transactions, prioritizing LPs in the most active pools during the current trading period. Furthermore, while ve-boost is gone, Pendle will still provide joint incentives if external protocols are willing to contribute, potentially leveraging up to 1.4X times the rewards. For long-term LPs, the single-pool rewards will be significantly higher than before, representing a much more convenient and predictable change!

⚡️Bank of America's Hartnett believes gold will continue to rise! In this new world order characterized by currency devaluation, rising populism, and excessive fiscal expansion, gold will be in a long-term bull market— and the end of a gold bull market is often due to a major event, such as Nixon's resignation in 1974, the Volcker Rate Shock in 1980, the end of the EU debt crisis in 2012, and the advent of the COVID-19 vaccine in 2020. To draw a conclusion: The average price increase during the four gold bull markets of the past 60 years was 300%. Based on this price projection, the peak price of gold in this round should exceed $6,000.

When fundamentals are "on track," price increases are only a matter of time: The basic consensus reached at the Davos Forum is the strong underlying fundamentals: financial institutions have already positioned Ethereum (ETH) and its ecosystem as the foundation for next-generation financial infrastructure. This means that the continued rise in gold and silver has masked the strength of cryptocurrencies (especially Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC)); Let the dust settle first, and once gold stabilizes, let digital gold take off! I personally remain bullish, especially on the second quarter of this year! 1️⃣ Asset rotation: Gold leads the way → risk assets catch up (delayed transmission); 2️⃣ Institutional allocation logic: "Slow money" from ETFs/custodians/compliant channels is more likely to exert its influence in Q2, with Bitcoin leading the way; 3️⃣ The cash flow/collateralized asset attributes of the Ethereum ecosystem are gradually strengthening, shifting the narrative from "technology" to "financial foundation"; 4️⃣ Market behavior: Sentiment recovery in the first half of the year → Q2 is more likely to see trend-following; Q2 is more likely to see a "risk asset window"

⚡️ Some say I'm just spouting nonsense, but given the current trend of US debt, I'm not exaggerating when I say that Bitcoin could one day reach $1 million. Over the past 25 years, US public debt has ballooned from less than $6 trillion to $38.5 trillion, a compound annual growth rate of nearly 8%! At this rate, nominal growth can't keep up with the compound interest on debt. Simply maintaining 2%-3% inflation and economic growth is simply not enough to reduce the debt! This raises a very real question: with the debt already at this level, what path can the US choose? A true hard landing to repay the debt is almost impossible; that would mean fiscal austerity, asset price collapse, and soaring unemployment. In realpolitik, there's virtually no room for maneuver; which government would dare take the blame? The remaining options are some less-than-honorable ones: 1⃣ Tariffs + Territorial Aggression + Economic Colonization: Small investment, quick returns—just make money regardless of the rules! 2. A combination of tools: suppressing real interest rates, tolerating inflation, and gradually releasing debt pressure through the financial system and global pricing power. In other words, what the US truly seeks may not be a substantial reduction in debt size, but simply a seemingly manageable level. This necessitates relying on fiscal dominance, financial repression, or a weakening dollar to maintain debt sustainability. This has been my consistent assessment: For a long time to come, risks will not be released in a textbook-style collapse, but rather gradually smoothed out by policy and inflation. This insidious nature is precisely what's most dangerous. Those who firmly believe in the value preservation of nominally safe assets, cash, and fixed income will see their purchasing power eroded imperceptibly over a long period. Therefore, in a system where debt can only be diluted, not liquidated, assets like gold and Bitcoin, which cannot be diluted by issuance, will become increasingly important, naturally possessing hedging properties. Even if Bitcoin is currently relatively quiet and its price performance is lagging, its inherent characteristics determine that it will eventually reach heights unattainable by most! If you don't believe me, come back in 10 years and prove me wrong!

⚡Over the years, I've developed a fixed habit: at the beginning of each year, I reread Charlie Munger's works— I believe that people are most prone to distorted judgment when things are going well. Therefore, it's crucial to repeatedly remind myself during the most lucid and decisive time of the year— I must deliberately distance myself from the root causes of long-term failures. Munger summarized it well: Debt, drama, and stupidity—avoid these three things, and you're already ahead of 90% of humanity! 1️⃣Debt is leverage that accelerates your destruction. The truly cruel aspect of the market is that: Losses always happen faster than you expect, while recovery always takes longer than you imagine. If you lose 50% of your capital, you need a 100% return to break even; If you lose 75%, you need a 300% return; If you lose 90%, you need a 900% return. And debt accelerates this misguided path. Those without debt are truly freed from a slave mentality and won't easily head towards self-destruction. 2️⃣ Dramatic Saga: The Silent Killer of Wealth Any conflict, entanglement, or chaos that consumes your time and energy without generating value is drama and must be avoided! Bad partnerships, toxic relationships, lawsuits, family discord, office politics, etc., are all the same thing. The most dangerous aspect of drama isn't the waste of time, but its systemic destruction of your judgment. Whether it's a transaction or a relationship, if you need to constantly manage and resolve conflict, end it quickly, thoroughly, and without hesitation. Focus on things that generate compound interest. 3️⃣ Associating with Foolish People Will Kill Your Life Get away from the following types of people: Those who are irrational, arrogant, and dishonest. Those who make bad decisions and expect you to save them. Those who don't learn from their mistakes. Those who mistake aimless busyness for progress. Most people are driven by self-fear, envy, and greed. They make decisions based on emotions and then justify them with logic. If you spend too much time with these people, you'll start doing the same thing. And this is often the starting point for everything to spiral out of control! Ever since we last read this, the lessons are still fresh, and we must remain constantly vigilant!

According to ChainCatcher, RWA protocols have surpassed DEXs to become the fifth largest category in decentralized finance (DeFi) by total value locked (TVL). According to DefiLlama data, RWA protocols currently have approximately $17 billion locked, a significant increase from approximately $12 billion in Q4 2024. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer of Kronos Research, stated that RWA growth is primarily driven by "balance sheet incentives rather than experimental demand." Higher interest rates have made tokenized Treasury bonds and private credit high-yield on-chain assets, while improved regulatory environments have lowered the entry barrier for institutional investors. Tokenized US Treasury bonds remain the dominant product, with funds including BlackRock's BUIDL, Circle's USYC, Franklin Templeton's BENJI, and Ondo's OUSG driving this segment to billions of dollars in size. In addition, rising gold and silver prices have injected new momentum into the tokenized commodities market, which has a market capitalization of nearly $4 billion, mainly dominated by products such as Tether Gold and Paxos Gold.

🚨The FDV (Funds-to-Valuation) of altcoins is one of the biggest illusions of this cycle— According to Memento Research, of the 118 TGEs this year, 84.7% of new coins have fallen below their initial offering price, with only 15% maintaining an upward trend. Most early investors are now facing significant paper losses. Here's a chilling statistic: By 2025, the cryptocurrency market will have over 37 million tokens. What does that mean? The total number of publicly traded companies globally is approximately 60,000-70,000, while the number of cryptocurrency tokens is more than 500 times that. However, money and attention won't increase 500 times. With each new coin, the pricing power of all existing coins is diluted. The reality is that most people only focus on a dozen or so assets, or even just three to five. The remaining tens of millions of tokens have been ignored since the moment the TGE ended. In such a market, almost everyone who makes money by holding counterfeit goods for the long term is suffering from survivorship bias!

🔥Dogecoin ($DOGE) — The meme isn't over yet! 🔥 $DOGE is no longer just a meme… It's driven by community power and growing whale attention 🚀 🐶 Strong support 🐋 Whales are accumulating 💥 Meme buzz + increased retail investor attention 💬 Community vitality returning The truth is: When Dogecoin starts to rise again, Unlucky investors will panic… While savvy investors will secretly rejoice 😏 📈 Bullish signals to watch: ✔ Price holds key support level ✔ Entering an accumulation phase ✔ Market sentiment shifts towards risk appetite 📌 Remember this message. Dogecoin always fluctuates when people least expect it. $DOGE #USEmploymentData #Meme #TrumpTariffs #CPIWatch {spot}(DOGEUSDT)