⚡️Just saw this picture, there is a key number - SOMA: $14,825,704,800.
Many people don't understand what this means, but the core question is: Has the Fed secretly started QE again?
Simply put, technically, yes; from a mechanism point of view, no; from a market structure point of view, it has not stopped at all.
Let me give you an example and you will understand -
Your family decides to pay a maximum of 5,000 yuan in loans each month (QT limit), but one month suddenly 8,000 yuan of debt is due.
You can't default on the debt, so you make up 3,000 yuan to continue to "buy" some debt, and then slowly pay it back to ensure that you do not exceed the 5,000 yuan budget limit.
This 3,000 yuan is the "SOMA add-on".
The increase in the scale of SOMA replenishment means that QT has begun to hesitate. This is what the Fed is doing now: talking about QT, but actually secretly buying bonds to cover positions. The name of the balance sheet reduction is still there, but the margin of liquidity is shifting.
Since March, the upper limit of QT balance sheet reduction has been reduced from 25 billion to 5 billion, which is a signal to the market: "I dare not shrink too quickly for fear of accidents."
This kind of covering operation is different from the active water release (QE) we usually see. It is not QE in terms of mechanism, but the effect in terms of market impact may not be much different, that is, money is released.
Because the market does not look at whether you are QE, but whether you continue to throw liquidity into the system.
Therefore, there is no need to wait for the Fed to officially announce "we restart QE". If you see that it is afraid of stalling and buying back bonds, you will know that the next round of liquidity cycle has already started secretly in the details.
The name is not important, as long as the money comes in.
Now it is like the Fed does not want to add fuel, but finds that the car will flip over if it stalls too quickly, so it starts to secretly add some oil.
And #bitcoin is like a passenger sitting on the roof of a car:
You can stop driving, but as long as the car moves, it will go up to the sky!