⚠️ Based on an electricity price of $0.08/kWh and a 5% mining pool fee, the mainstream Antminer S21 series has already reached its shutdown price. Only some high-end new models are still profitable, with a shutdown price of $44,000. 2018: Bottom price $3,200, mainstream S9 shutdown price $4,000. 2022: Bottom price $15,000, mainstream S19 shutdown price $18,000. So the question is, if we follow the old model— Will the mainstream S21 shutdown price reach $69,000 in 2026, and will the bottom for $BTC in this round be $55,000?

Brother Huang Licheng has been liquidated again! The crucial point is that after the liquidation, he opened a new 25x long position in $ETH. Brother Huang is truly a chosen one, going against the grain; I still don't understand what he's doing!

Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum, clearly a ploy to appeal to voters in the midterm elections; $100 worth of oil equals political suicide. Meanwhile, Iran is becoming increasingly defiant. They've realized the US government has no credibility, and ceasefire agreements are utterly useless; they've attacked again in less than a year. Therefore, Iran is determined this time. Forget negotiations; they want the US to pay the price—first, end the petrodollar! Iran is attempting to drive up energy prices to precisely target the $60 trillion US stock market, which is heavily shorting oil, thereby severely damaging US wealth and credit. Currently, stocks account for nearly 40% of US household net worth, far higher than the 10% during the 1990 energy shock. If the stock market continues to slump, consumer spending could be 1.5-1.8 percentage points lower than currently projected, equivalent to a reduction of over 1% in real GDP. So, is Trump really willing to risk a stock market crash by bombing power plants? Stop it, Trump! Tacos aren't shameful! If the fighting continues, Putin next door will recover.

⚠️ Another stablecoin has broken its peg; Resolv attackers continue to maliciously issue USR. What happened: 1) The attackers exploited a bug in the contract allowing unlimited minting/over-issuance, currently using 200,000 USDC to mint 80 million USR. 2) They then exchanged the extra USR for wstUSR → sold it off in large quantities through Curve/AMM pools → the surge in USR supply directly broke the peg, causing the price to plummet by 74%. 3) The attackers have already partially cashed out, withdrawing millions of dollars worth of ETH. Resolv @ResolvLabs' USR is designed with Delta neutrality + ETH/BTC over-collateralization + RLP insurance layer, which originally had decent resistance to de-pegging. However, the lack of strict collateral verification and amount limit checks in the minting logic allowed attackers to mint an unlimited amount at minimal cost. This contract passed a formal audit in August 2025, yet it still ran into problems—demonstrating that DeFi audits ≠ 100% security. Furthermore, the massive over-issuance has directly impacted liquidity pools, exposing vaults such as USR/RLP/stUSR. 👉If you hold USR, wstUSR, USR-DOLA LP, or related yield positions, withdraw them as soon as possible to cut your losses! Currently, the contract hasn't stopped minting, so I'm not buying cheap USR to let the attackers take over!

Today, with US stocks falling and all three major indices plunging, Bitcoin miraculously held firm! What a miracle! Let's see how long this hold! $BTC $ETH

I think there are two points here: 1️⃣ Investment is free, but it's an unprotected market; you bear the risk yourself! 2️⃣ This is an individual case, and a civil lawsuit at that. Such matters can range from minor to major, but the room for manipulation is enormous. In fact, consider this: if Zhang profited from this, or if Zhang invited more than just Liu, turning it into a group incident, then this outcome would likely be very different. A group incident is egregious; profits are worth pursuing, and many charges could be brought against them, starting with illegal business operations. In summary, I'm saying two things: 1️⃣ When investing, be vigilant. In China, you're gambling in a market without sovereign credit backing; you bear the risk yourself, and the chances of recovering your losses are slim. 2️⃣ However, if you're thinking of exploiting loopholes to scam others, or if you think China is above the law, don't. This is an individual case, but the procedures vary from place to place. Trust me, don't break the law. Live a law-abiding life and don't have any crooked thoughts. There are many intelligent people in law enforcement agencies, and their efficiency can be quite high when needed.

I interviewed several people around me, and they all believe that October this year will be the bottom of this cycle, and they'll be going all in then. Historically, in the three previous cycles, the bottom was reached after a 70%-85% drop from the peak. This time, the peak was 126,000, so based on that magnitude, it should fall within that range. Adding to this the logic of the halving cycle, ETF funds, and institutional allocation, October seems like a reasonable point in time. But the fact that everyone around me is unanimously pointing to October makes me feel a little strange!

🔍 Top 5 Tokens to Watch Today 1️⃣ $SOL · $90.14 · 🔴 -5.0% Why Watch: Active users surpass 8.7 million; on-chain DeFi and Memecoin ecosystem continues to expand; Alpenglow upgrade is imminent (reduced latency, increased throughput); rebounded 14% from its lowest point; stabilized at the $89 support zone after a 45% correction; institutional funds inflow of $31 million; target resistance level $100. Risk: Still follows BTC sentiment; difficult to rise independently if the overall market is unstable. 2️⃣ $HYPE (Hyperliquid) · $41.3 · 🔴 -1.2% Why Watch: Despite a significant overall market decline today, HYPE saw the smallest drop at only -1.2%, demonstrating outstanding resilience. It boasts the highest trading volume across the entire chain for decentralized perpetual contracts and has a clear fundamental moat. Market capitalization $98 billion. 1. The token unlocking pressure has been largely absorbed, with key support at $30. The current price of $41 remains in a strong range. Logic: Resilience = Strong institutional investor + Strong fundamentals; often leads the market rebound. 3️⃣ $XRP · $1.46 · 🔴 -4.4% Why focus on: Market capitalization of $89.3 billion, ample liquidity, high institutional participation. SEC cases have been largely resolved, significantly improving regulatory clarity (SEC + CFTC jointly released token classification guidelines yesterday). XRP ETF saw a net inflow of $28 million last week, a signal of institutional positioning. Currently located in the key support zone of a descending triangle at $1.38~$1.63. If BTC stabilizes, it may break through first. Risk: The pattern needs confirmation of direction. 4️⃣ $ZEC (Zcash) · $251 · 🔴 -10.5% Why focus on (medium to long term): Largest decline today. -10.5%, a potential oversold rebound opportunity. A leading privacy coin, it's worth watching. Privacy coins often experience excessive volatility when regulatory trends fluctuate. With a market capitalization of only $4.2 billion, it's small in size but highly volatile. Key support is $220-$230, and the current price of $251 has just fallen back above this range. Suitable for: Investors who prefer high volatility and accept high risk. 5️⃣ DOT (Polkadot) · $1.55 · 🔴 -5.2% Why focus on it (event-driven): Grayscale + 21Shares simultaneously submitted DOT ETF applications, the biggest catalyst recently. Current price $1.55, MACD shows a bottoming golden cross pattern. Historically, ETF applications often develop weeks in advance. Target price is $2.36 (Fibonacci level). Market capitalization is only $2.6 billion, high upside potential. Risk: ETF approval time is uncertain; not suitable for heavy short-term speculation.

Large-scale capital copy trading trends! $LINK $UNI

Oversold stocks worth watching (with solid fundamentals): $AVAX $LINK $SOL $ETH