There are still many people expecting a final surge in Bitcoin (BTC), and I'm quite convinced there will be one too. The weekly chart suggests a top is forming. If that happens, I believe those who were bearish recently will find various reasons to become bullish. Currently, Bitcoin's bearish pattern hasn't fully materialized, especially on the weekly chart. I can only interpret the current high as a sideways consolidation before further declines, so we're still waiting for that final surge.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin's current highs and lows are roughly parallel, indicating a broad range of fluctuations. Further analysis using technical indicators reveals that the price has shown a high degree of respect for past overbought and oversold signals. Each time a signal is triggered, the price has experienced a periodic reversal, further confirming the validity of this oscillating pattern. Based on these two logical assumptions, Bitcoin is indeed currently experiencing a broad range of fluctuations, not a unilateral trend. The next key point is to observe when and where the next overbought signal will appear. If it coincides with a key resistance level, this presents a worthy opportunity to short the upper edge of the range.

$DOGE Dogecoin should continue to rise. This wave of accumulation has lasted long enough, and after three bottoming attempts, the final market shakeout is over. There should be another wave of market activity, with strong upward pressure expected around 0.32.

The main uptrend is on its way, it's too early to call a bull market! I've been staring at the candlestick chart all night, and the more I look, the more I feel that this bull market isn't over yet, and the true main uptrend hasn't arrived yet! If I had to talk about the market, there was only one wave in the first half of the year, from April to July, and then there was wide fluctuations in the second half of the year, with at most some local rebounds or artificial MEMEs. The critical months of the year-end are November, December, and January, and they haven't arrived yet. It's really too early to call a bull market! No matter what, stay steadfast in your faith, manage your positions well, and let the results speak for themselves!

On-chain data shows that whales are hoarding a large amount of Bitcoin recently, which shows that whales are still optimistic about the subsequent market. At the end of the second year after each bull market halving, there will be a big market trend. This was the case in 2013/2017/2021, and I believe this year will be no exception.

The market seems to show some signs supporting this optimistic scenario: First, the rise from October 17th to 21st is a typical five-wave structure, and five waves typically don't exist in isolation, so Bitcoin may continue to rise. Second, Bitcoin's decline yesterday did not break below support, and trading volume decreased significantly, indicating a weakening of selling pressure.

An Optimistic Speculation on Bitcoin's Future Trends A few days ago, I offered an optimistic prediction for the altcoin market, but the premise for a resurgence of the altcoin market is that Bitcoin continues to rise. So, will Bitcoin continue to rise? How can we determine this? Below, I offer an optimistic prediction for Bitcoin's future trends from the perspective of Wave Theory, along with the criteria for determining this. Based on Wave Theory, the fifth major wave likely follows a normal five-wave motive wave structure: The first and third sub-waves themselves are five-wave structures, so the fifth major wave is not the end of an inclined triangle, but rather a standard five-wave structure. Due to the involvement of numerous traditional institutions, Bitcoin's fifth major wave has become somewhat similar to that of the US stock market: the first sub-wave is the strongest, the third sub-wave is second, and the fifth sub-wave is the weakest. The fourth sub-wave of Bitcoin's fifth major wave has now completed (August 13th to October 17th). The fourth sub-wave is a platform-type correction (3-3-5 structure). The fourth sub-wave does not overlap with the first sub-wave, so the five-wave motive wave structure of the fifth major wave still holds. There will be a fifth sub-wave of upward movement. There are three possible targets for this fifth sub-wave: an optimistic scenario of 149,000 ± 3,000, a moderate scenario of 143,000 ± 3,000, and a pessimistic scenario of 135,000 ± 3,000. However, this optimistic scenario assumes that Bitcoin's daily closing price does not fall below the January 17th low; otherwise, the above analysis of the fifth major wave will no longer hold. It should be noted that the crypto market is subject to significant uncertainty, and there are multiple possible future trends. This is merely one possible scenario and does not constitute investment advice.

The hourly pullback has almost completed, while the daily pullback has yet to form, causing short-term fluctuations to revert to smaller levels below the 30-minute level. The 4-hour uptrend is now encountering resistance, with the 2-hour chart forming a death cross above zero. The 1-hour MACD is about to reach zero, the 30-minute MACD has already reached zero, and the 15-minute MACD has fallen below zero, leading to a bearish intraday trend today. Why did MSTR rise on Monday, but BTC didn't? Because it had already risen during the night before and yesterday. BTC bulls' defense is the 4-hour BOLL middle line (108,600). A break below this level would signify the end of the rally and prevent further upward movement, thus invalidating any subsequent daily pullbacks. Conversely, if the 108,600-108,200 range holds, bulls will continue to push the price higher. Therefore, the rebound of the past two or three days has come to an end. Most long positions could have been largely exited yesterday.

$BTC Bitcoin has reached a daily bottom and completed its second retracement below the daily moving average. A rebound is expected over the next week, but its strength is uncertain. Furthermore, the second interest rate cut is imminent. Whether there will be a significant rally will depend on the market's trajectory after the second rate cut. However, I still believe a relatively positive market trend may emerge after the second rate cut, so we'll need to wait and see.

Bitcoin is approaching the short-term supply line. Friday's decline was accompanied by heavy volume, indicating strong selling pressure. Furthermore, Bitcoin's current rebound is weak, so it's highly likely that Bitcoin will test the short-term supply line again. Optimistically, it won't fall below the low of 103,500, but will test the bottom again before rebounding and breaking through the short-term supply line. Pessimistically, it will fall below 10.35, completing the final decline of the fifth wave, and then rebounding and breaking through the short-term supply line. According to wave theory, the fifth wave is unlikely to fall below 100,000. Therefore, I would consider a short-term long position on this dip, anticipating a rebound between 8,000 and 12,000.