Author: [kkdemian]
Date: December 2025
Reading Time: Approx. 15 minutes
Abstract: If 2024 was the year of recovery, and 2025 was the year of validation, then 2026 will mark a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency market's transformation from a "speculative casino" to a global financial "mainstream."
Core Argument: The Mainstream of the Next Round of Liquidity Expansion
Before delving into specific predictions, we must first address a core question: In the upcoming liquidity expansion of 2026, which instruments will become the primary channels for institutional capital and genuine demand?
The Logic of Institutions like Sassano, SWF, Vanguard, BlackRock, and ARKK: Structural Betting
For long-term Ethereum bulls, the logic of betting on Ethereum and its L2 ecosystem will become irrefutable in 2026. We define our asset stratification framework as follows:
BTC = Digital Gold (Store of Value) Absorbs "anti-inflationary" and "safe-haven" capital. Characteristics: High liquidity, but low velocity of circulation. Current Status: As of 2025, over $175 billion in institutional funds have been attracted through ETFs. ETH = Digital Bonds and Settlement Network (Value Transfer). Institutional capital not only pursues security but also yield (staking) and settlement utility. Core Logic: The explosive growth of high-frequency Web3 interactions in 2026 can only be supported by the Ethereum settlement layer + L2 execution layer. Current Status: The number of Ethereum staked tokens exceeds 34 million, with an annualized yield (APY) of 100%, stable at 3-5%.
Market Validation Data (2025 Baseline):
L2 Total Lifetime Value: Over $39 billion (37% year-over-year growth). L2 Activity: 1.9 million daily transactions, accounting for 60% of the total transaction volume in the Ethereum ecosystem. Adoption: Over 3.2 million monthly active users (Coinbase L2). Tokenized RWA has reached: $36.1 billion. Perp DEX monthly trading volume exceeded $1.2 trillion (November 30, 2025).
12 Core Predictions for 2026
1. Web3 User Segmentation: From "Native Users" to "Advanced Traders"
Trend Analysis: 2026 marks the end of the "browser-extended wallet" era. The widespread adoption of Account Abstraction (AA) and passwords will revolutionize the user experience.
Key Prediction: Users won't need to understand "decentralization"; they'll be there for more efficient financial services (PayFi). Mobile user experiences will rival Web2 applications; PayPal and Robinhood will become the largest Web3 gateways. Validation: Non-crypto native users will exceed 70%, and the number of monthly active wallets will surpass 200 million.
2. DeFi 3.0: Synthetic Yields and RWA Settlement
Trend Analysis: Pure inflationary yield mining will die out. Large capital will focus on RWA (Real-World Assets) and on-chain real-world yields.
The Synthetic Index Revolution: The market will be flooded with "synthetic yield tokens" (e.g., a combination of 40% RWA Treasury bonds + 30% Aave lending + 30% ETH staking). Institutional Dynamics: BlackRock's BUIDL fund grew from $615 million to $1.87 billion in one year; Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon launched tokenized money market funds. Key Predictions: RWA protocol yields will stabilize at an annualized yield (APY) of 5-8%; regulatory arbitrage will disappear as compliance becomes a barrier to entry.
3. Breaking Asset Boundaries: On-Chain Stocks and 24/7 Trading
Trend Analysis: Traditional US stocks will accelerate their on-chain adoption through tokenization, enabling a perpetually active global financial market.
Scenario: A Tokyo investor buys tokenized "Apple stock" at 2 AM on Saturday and immediately pledges it on the Aave platform to borrow USDC for cross-asset arbitrage. Key Predictions: Tokenized securities market capitalization surpasses $100 billion; T+0 instant settlement becomes standard. Breaking down the traditional brokerage's moat.
4. The Rise of Info-Fi: Prediction as Hedging
Trend Analysis: The prediction market will evolve from isolated islands into a "forward-looking indicator" of the broader financial market.
New Asset Class: "Event Hedging Tools." When users buy Nvidia stock, the interface automatically recommends a Polymarket token betting on "underperformance" as a hedging tool. Key Prediction: Info-Fi market capitalization will exceed $50 billion; "prediction + hedging" will become the standard investment strategy.
5. The Awakening of Token Economics: Buybacks Become a Belief
Trend Analysis: Pure "governance tokens" (voting rights only) will be phased out. Valuation logic will shift from Total Value Locked (TVL) to Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E).
New ICO Model: Mandatory binding of "protocol revenue buyback/burn" or "actual dividends." Projects without positive cash flow will not be able to launch. Key Predictions: The meme bubble will burst; traditional financial analysis frameworks will be fully applied to token valuation.
6. Intelligent Agent Maturation: AI Monopoly and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Economy
Trend Analysis: Humans will utilize intelligent agents to improve efficiency; a machine-to-machine (M2M) economy will form between intelligent agents.
AI Monopoly: Predicting market data processing, on-chain meme value (MEV) acquisition, and dynamic automated market maker (AMM) parameter adjustment. Currency: Intelligent agents will no longer use bank accounts; they will exclusively use stablecoins (payments) and Ethereum (transaction fuel). Key Predictions: By 2026, 60% of on-chain transaction volume will be initiated by AI intelligent agents; humans will completely withdraw from high-frequency trading.7. The Privacy Renaissance: From "Money Laundering Tool" to "Business Compliance"
Trend Analysis: Privacy will become a prerequisite for enterprises to adopt intelligent agents. Enterprises will leverage zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technology to achieve "data invisibility under trusted verification."
Technology Stack: Zero-knowledge proof (ZKP), homomorphic encryption, multi-party computation (MPC). Key Prediction: Without a privacy layer, corporate funds will not be able to flow on-chain at large scale. Compliant privacy solutions (e.g., the collaboration between Paxos and Aleo) will gain mainstream acceptance.
8. Quantum Computing and the DeSci Narrative
Trend Analysis: Quantum computing may reach a technological singularity in 2026; "quantum-resistant" will become a mainstream narrative for the first time.
DeSci (Decentralized Science): Using blockchain to solve problems related to research funding, data ownership, and results sharing. Key Prediction: Ethereum advances its "simplified Ethereum" anti-quantum upgrade; DeSci project funding surpasses $1 billion.
9. Market Structure Shift: Perp DEX Swallows CEX Market Share
Trend Analysis: With the maturation of zkEVM and high-performance L2 cryptography, on-chain derivatives will offer a user experience comparable to CEXs, but with transparent clearing and self-custody capabilities.
The Decline of CEXs: Centralized exchanges will degenerate into mere fiat currency deposit and withdrawal channels and entry-level platforms. Key Predictions: On-chain derivatives trading volume will account for over 40% of the market share; protocols like Hyperliquid and dYdX regulate over $5 billion in daily trading volume.
10. The Final Stage of Ethereum Scaling: zkEVM as the Main Growth Channel
Trend Analysis: The Ethereum mainnet will recede into the background, functioning only as a "secure settlement layer."
Value Stream: Users pay extremely low gas fees at the L2 layer → The L2 layer pays data availability fees (ETH) to the mainnet → ETH is burned via EIP-1559. Key Predictions: L2 layer daily transaction volume surpasses 5 million transactions; ETH supply deflation through burning mechanism.
11. Institutionalization of Prediction Markets
Trend Analysis: Prediction markets are transforming from "fringe casinos" to "mainstream financial instruments."
Three Scenarios: Macro hedging (institutions), corporate risk management (supply chain/policy), information aggregation (Bloomberg terminal integration). Key Prediction: Global prediction market transaction volume surpasses $100 billion; Asia (Singapore and Hong Kong) leads in licensing.
12. New ICO Paradigm: Futarchy + Community Fundraising
Trend Analysis: 2026 will witness the birth of "ICO 2.0"—the fusion of market governance (Futarchy) and community fundraising.
MetaDAO Model: Transactions replace voting (Futarchy) to prevent governance attacks. Echo/Coinbase Model: Community fund pools reduce individual risk; on-chain transparency eliminates the privilege of "venture capital discounts." Key Predictions: Total funds raised through these new models will exceed $20 billion; Futarchy will become the standard configuration for DAO governance.
Conclusion: The Dialectical Return of "Fat Applications"
In 2016, the "fat protocol" theory argued that value would reside at the bottom. In 2026, we will see a dialectical return of this theory.
Value will ultimately stabilize at the bottom (ETH), but the switch triggering value capture will be firmly in the hands of the application layer: the gas consumption of payment requests by AI agents, the TVL contribution of the RWA platform, and the data generated by the prediction market.
We are bidding farewell to the "Wild West" era of utopian thinking and entering a mature financial era characterized by "closed-loop logic and real value settlement." For all participants, 2026 is not only a golden opportunity for asset appreciation but also a leap in cognitive understanding.
Don't just be a holder; be a user. In the next decade of Web3...



















