Entering "wealth preservation mode,"
Last week, I sold all my stocks and most of my crypto assets. The first rate cut happened a few weeks ago, the second is expected at the end of the month, and two more rate cuts are on the way. History shows that the real decline often begins after the second or third rate cut.
Investors often interpret the first rate cut as bullish,
but it's actually a sign that the economy is weakening.
The true bottom often occurs after the second or third rate cut.
This pattern has remained largely unchanged throughout history.
Whether it's the 1990 recession, the 2001 dot-com bubble,
or the 2007-08 global financial crisis,
each of these periods saw three or more consecutive rate cuts.
In these cycles, the market typically begins to weaken after the second rate cut,
and this weakness persists from the second rate cut all the way to the third.
In February of this year, I intuitively judged that it was the market peak, so I moved all my positions into cash.
A few weeks later, the market plummeted, and I bought the bottom in April. Although I didn't catch the peak of the cycle (BTC later reached a new high), at that moment, I, holding all cash, seized the bottom opportunity given by fate and doubled my money from the low point of the US stock market.
Now, my intuition is telling me that October or November may be another peak. Of course, who knows?
But I'd rather trust my intuition than any fortune teller.
I'm currently almost entirely in cash and stablecoins.
The only thing I hold is Sui, which I use for DeFi staking mining.
This allows me to earn income while maintaining some on-chain exposure.
I don't know how the market will develop.
As the old saying goes:
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
So, never fight the market head-on.
My strategy is simple.
There may be another rebound before the next rate cut.
But after the second rate cut, I won't bet on any risky assets.
I'll continue to observe, but I'll reduce my participation.
After all, how much can a 24-year-old understand about the market?