Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito today released 27 predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2026 at X, covering topics such as regulation, digital asset reserves (DAT), primary markets, and real-world assets (RWA). The following is a translation of the original text:
1. Investors will push for a clearer distinction between "equity" and "token," but this issue will not be truly resolved in 2026.
Some agreements will merge labs (developers) and foundations, but this will not become mainstream; negative market perception of "dual-structure" projects will continue to rise.
2. Investor relations (IR) will become increasingly important.
Investors will demand standardized financial statements and disclosure mechanisms. Crypto industry IR will draw on traditional capital markets, but with a greater emphasis on social media and community, potentially even redefining traditional stock market IR standards.
3. The market will push for GAAP-like accounting standards, but they are unlikely to be fully implemented by 2026.
Ultimately, regulatory enforcement (likely through the Clarity Act) will be needed to enforce these standards. Until then, data providers will offer some "lightweight" quasi-standard solutions.
4. Discussions on "revenue meta" will shift towards "durability" and "quality."
Investors will no longer give high premiums to highly pro-cyclical business models; instead, highly sticky enterprise software is becoming "sexy" in the crypto market for the first time.
5. Most DATs (Decentralized Asset Trusts/Similar Structures) will not have much real impact.
Some DATs will acquire infrastructure (staking, yield generation, asset management, etc.) and attempt to transform into operating companies. The market will start discussing the possibility of labs going public, but it won't really take off.
6. Venture capital (VC) is about to have a truly painful year.
Poor performance will be exposed by the media, many funds will struggle to raise capital, and at least two top-tier blue-chip funds will close. 7. Fintech-backed VCs will enter the market, outcompeting traditional crypto VCs in securing high-quality late-stage deals.
8. VC investment will remain sluggish.
Total investment in 2026 is projected to be only $12-18 billion, slightly lower than the approximately $25 billion in 2025.
9. The market is predicted to continue growing in 2026, but market sentiment will begin to shift.
Legal challenges will increase, and negative news will rise, but trading volume will continue to grow, projected to double this year's.
10. Kalshi and Polymarket will remain the kings of the market.
Other CEXs will attempt to enter, with Robinhood continuing to succeed and Coinbase failing. No new successful startups are expected, but some sports betting apps will see some gains.
10. Hyperliquid performed reasonably well, but growth slowed significantly.
Competition in perpetual contracts (perps) is fierce, with new platforms and large CEXs like Coinbase successfully eroding market share. It will be a difficult year for the protocol, and the community will face its first real emotional test.
11. Despite the hype, equity perps will perform poorly in early 2026.
CEXs will outperform DEXs, accounting for less than 5% of total perp trading volume by the end of the year.
12. Bitcoin sentiment is set for a bad year.
The main reasons include gold's outperformance, concerns about the quantum threat, and structural pressure from DAT. Michael Saylor's reputation will suffer, and criticism that "Bitcoin is not a productive asset" will resurface.
13. Quantum computing is a real threat and will be widely discussed in 2026.
Bitcoin Core developers will delay, but will eventually propose a viable solution. By the end of 2026, the problem will be somewhere between "almost not a problem" and "difficult but with a glimmer of hope."
14. Ethereum will completely reverse market sentiment, ushering in its best year since 2021.
L1 will revive in 2026 and dominate the RWA issuance market. Stablecoin trading volume saw only slight growth, with more incremental growth coming from government bonds and new RWA offerings.
15. "Looping" in RWAs will become an important trend, but not a purely atomic on-chain loop.
Smart protocols will combine on-chain lenders with prime brokers as a bridge. This will become a highly profitable business line for prime brokers like Galaxy.
16. The on-chain credit market will mature significantly by 2026.
VCs will attempt to establish credit funds (mostly unsuccessfully), but truly traditional credit funds will be more actively involved. They will become RWA liquidators and reserve managers, with 2-3 mega-funds of Apollo caliber making a major foray.
17. Vaults and on-chain asset management will be the theme of the year.
Vault AUM will grow from the current approximately $5 billion to $15-20 billion, but not explosively.
18. The biggest winners in DeFi are Morpho and Pendle.
Morpho wins with its simplified token structure and leading position in modular lending; Pendle becomes the core market for fixed-rate lending (rate swap-like transactions).
19. Solana will have a low-key but successful year.
Innovations like Alpenglow and ACE won't bring short-term returns, but they will attract more DEXs and on-chain activity. REV will bottom out in mid-2026.And a recovery will begin at the end of the year.
20. Passive market making (LP) in AMMs will essentially come to an end in 2026.
This is initially triggered by the success of prop AMMs on Solana. Solana will face a minor crisis of "non-meme asset price discovery not occurring on the local chain," but this is expected to be resolved by the end of the year.
21. The new L1 narrative is officially dead.
The network effect of Ethereum and Solana will become increasingly apparent, and their REV multiples will be re-evaluated due to their "high stickiness."
22. On-chain infrastructure will face another difficult year.
Most general-purpose L2 and alternative L1 will fail to attract new users or applications. Several large protocols will be forced to significantly transform or adjust their business models by the end of the year.
23. Infrastructure will enter a period of large-scale consolidation.
L2 frameworks, RaaS, and shared sequencing will be compressed into single categories. These will shift from an "ecosystem" to something similar to Red Hat's CoSS (Chain-as-Shared-Service). Two to three vertically integrated solutions will emerge.
24. Corporate chains will be a major theme in 2026, but with mixed results.
Tempo's initial data was strong but subsequently weakened; Arc failed to gain adoption; Robinhood Chain's trajectory will be similar to Base. Four to five new chains will be announced, including BlackRock.
25. Base will begin to be scrutinized.
The assumption that 2025 will be the year of the L2 war winner will be shaken. Content coin strategies have failed, triggering an existential crisis of "not winning any category."
26. Privacy will be gradually introduced and driven through the enterprise blockchain layer.
Successfully articulating future business needs from financial institutions, rather than cypherpunk ideologies. Most current privacy solutions are underperforming; ZEC is a one-off exception and will perform poorly in 2026.
27. Agentic Commerce in the crypto world has seen almost no progress.
Effective transaction volume and adoption are close to zero throughout the year.
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