"Viking Investment Notes" Issue 930
Date: September 30, 2025
Keywords: Thoroughly Understand and Execute to the Fullest
1. Understanding Opportunities
After years in the market, I've learned this lesson: Seizing one great opportunity is better than seizing 100 mediocre ones.
Thoroughly understanding and fully exploiting a major opportunity will yield significant results. This is a lesson learned at great cost.
We can't seize every opportunity, nor can we continually chase mediocre, small ones. The potential for small opportunities is extremely limited, and even if we thoroughly understand and exploit them, we won't achieve significant results.
Failure to thoroughly understand and exploit a major opportunity often leads to heartache and regret, feeling that the conditions were excellent but we didn't seize them.
A few self-questions:
• Why did I only take such a small position in this opportunity?
• Why did I sell so early after taking a position?
• Why didn't I hedge even though the opening price was ideal?
Thoroughly understanding and fully exploiting a major opportunity tests all aspects of the process: taking a position, executing on the details, selling, and selling well. If any step isn't done well, the results will be drastically different. It's better to thoroughly grasp and exploit one big opportunity than to seize ten.
The Necessity of Selling Practice
I've found my selling skills to be mediocre. The core reason is that I'm usually too casual in selling small opportunities, and this casualness can habitually carry over to big ones. This is something I need to be vigilant about.
For example, FF took tens of thousands of chips, thought the amount wasn't large, and sold them carelessly, resulting in a 75% drop in a single day.
Thus, selling small opportunities is also a valuable practice opportunity. If you don't practice well with small opportunities, you're likely to struggle with big ones.
2. Market Conditions and Strategy Execution
Today, Bitcoin broke through the MA120 level. I bought in with tears in my eyes and stuck to my strategy.
At the same time, altcoins and new tokens plummeted across the board, and market enthusiasm and sentiment have cooled, which I think is good.
As for my overall market outlook, I don't have a particularly clear view. It's truly difficult to judge at this stage of the cycle.
It may take a few months to look back and see clearly: Is this the end of the bull market? Or is this the craziest wave yet?
The future is unpredictable, just like the US stock market—some say it's too expensive and about to crash, others say it's hitting new highs. Being in this world, it's like a mountain of fog.
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Gratitude Session
Thank you, Brother Xu Peng, for the dinner.
Thank you, Andy, for the dinner.
Thank you, Lao Xue, for the opportunity card.
Thank you, friends, for the Mid-Autumn Festival gifts: mooncakes, hairy crabs, seafood, and more!
@cryptocishanjia Naizi told me to tweet about it, saying it was well written.
