I recently spoke with several leading market makers and venture capital partners, and I've come up with some stark but compelling conclusions to share:
1. Altcoins are in decline
A year ago, I wrote that venture capital firms had essentially stopped investing in early-stage Web3 projects—a trend that's even more pronounced now. The October 11th "black swan" event dealt a devastating blow to altcoins. Retail investors trading altcoins face a dreadful risk-reward ratio.
Let's face it—the golden age of altcoins won't arrive in 2025 or 2026.
The exceptions? Infrastructure projects with real-world resources, such as stablecoins, risk-weighted assets (RWAs), and payment solutions—but these projects likely won't even issue tokens.
2. The DAT bubble is bursting
There's little genuine demand for long-tail digital asset tokens (DATs). Recent trades have mostly been "real" swaps—tokens for equity. From the perspective of project teams, token holders, and financial advisors, issuing DATs makes sense because it helps raise capital. But for investors—whether you're a private participant before the DAT launch or buying into the stock market later—you could end up losing money.
3/ Current Strategy: Understand the Current Situation and Proceed with Caution
Trading isn't easy right now. It's not like a year or two ago when you could "buy without a second thought," but it's not the peak of a bull market when you can "sell without a second thought." The true market top will come amidst blind enthusiasm, not the current panic. (NFA, DYOR)
▪️ Investors Holding Cash: I've been contacted by several family offices planning to allocate 5% to 20% of their funds to BTC. I think this makes sense—the BTC/gold ratio is currently relatively low.
▪️ For those fully invested or using leverage: I've said it before—reduce leverage now and adopt a defensive posture.
▪️ For those partially invested: Be patient, hold your positions steady, and wait for the right opportunity.
After the October 11, 2011, 4:00 AM Incident: The Market Needs Time to Heal
Weekly trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEXs) has dropped by 20% to 40%. Market makers have also been impacted—some major players have even been liquidated after increasing their leverage (I won't name them here). Large capital is generally more risk-averse, and everyone needs time to regroup and recover.
Summary:
Bull markets are born out of desperation and mature in skepticism. We are currently in the "skepticism" phase. Give up the illusion of getting rich quick!
