#Bitcoin – What's Next?
Sunday Breakout Report: Everything We Need to Know 🚩
Technical Analysis/Long-Term Analysis/Psychological Analysis: Since September 2025, I've been sharing my outlook and expectations for Bitcoin, as well as its movement over the next few months. At the short-term entry point of 115-125K, my initial target price was 100K, which was reached within weeks of my prediction. Afterward, I clearly pointed out that Bitcoin would experience a period of consolidation before dropping to 60K. At the time, this was hard to believe, but a few weeks later, everything unfolded as I predicted. At 60K, I predicted Bitcoin would enter a consolidation range between 57K and 87K. Bitcoin recently rose to 76K, but then fell sharply back to 68K just a few days later. Is this the bullish trap I've been referring to? Yes, this is one of the traps in this area before it continues to fall.
My strategy is very simple. I sold the Bitcoin I bought around $68,000 two weeks ago and now only hold a large short position between $115,000 and $125,000. I plan to add to this position with 5x leverage between $79,000 and $84,000, and these orders have already been placed. We are in a bear market, not only in the Bitcoin market but also in the entire stock market. Back in September, I pointed out the severe liquidity crunch in the repo market and the increasing risks of the Fed's standing repo facility. Furthermore, we are seeing continued manipulation in the silver and gold markets, with futures prices increasingly decoupled from physical supply, while physical supply continues to decline. Oil prices are rising, consistent with my analysis two months ago when I shorted Chevron, which is currently one of the biggest beneficiaries of these trends. Artificial intelligence and data-related stocks are severely overbought and over-invested. I shorted these sectors, and these positions were sold at a premium in November. Many stocks have fallen 30% to 40%, including PLTR, MSFT, and Coinbase. All my short positions are currently profitable. I am shorting Bitcoin. I am bullish on stocks (especially AI-related stocks) and stock indices in the UK, Germany, and Japan.
Which assets am I bullish on? Only a few: Chevron stock, physical metals, and oil. I also hold a long position in oil, which I bought two weeks ago at a premium of $84 and shared. This is my current portfolio allocation. I expect the bear market to dominate most assets, with only a select few remaining strong. Bitcoin is currently weak and lacks clear direction, which explains its continued sideways movement. However, the next major move could still be downward. Market makers are trying to push prices up to gain liquidity before pushing them down. Meanwhile, based on current data, they seem more cautious and hesitant to make any big moves due to the high risk associated with the macro and geopolitical environment.
Therefore, I have slightly adjusted my short entry range to 79-84K, and my orders are currently placed within that range. Prior to this, I will continue to hold a core short position of 115-125K. A few days ago, I mentioned XRP. Shortly after I entered the position, it rose 16%. However, I took profits and publicly stated that I ultimately closed the position with a gain of approximately 5%. The reason is simple: the risk-reward ratio was no longer as attractive as it was a few weeks ago, and considering the potential of Bitcoin's overall trend. This is also why I no longer hold Bitcoin spot. The next significant drop is only a matter of time. I don't rule out the possibility of a false drop before then, and if it does occur, I will use that opportunity to increase my short position, but overall, we are moving towards target 3 shown on the chart.
Last week's FOMC meeting gave us a clearer understanding of future trends. The next rate cut is expected in December 2026, much later than the market anticipated. I recall that the last time I announced a rate cut was in December 2025. People said we would see another rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. They were wrong. Now, watch the market panic spread. There's no sign of interest rate cuts, and according to the latest PPI and core PPI data, inflation is rising. Scary, isn't it? Did you know your left eye is connected to your right brain? The right brain is the center of emotions. Some people really need to be pirates to trade without being influenced by emotions. And now is the time to completely eliminate emotions. Market makers are manipulating emotions and psychology; prepare for massive manipulation before the next big drop. Liquidity pressures are intensifying; the 2008 crisis is repeating itself. I'm not predicting a September 2025 correction, but a major crash, and that's exactly where we're headed. I'm fully prepared; there are no buy orders between $57,000 and $60,000, only short orders between $79,000 and $84,000, just in case the market allows it.
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