Solana (SOL) is at a critical crossroads, with prices falling from highs and short-term support in jeopardy. On one hand, there is a large-scale outflow of funds from on-chain data, while on the other hand, some people still call for a medium-term target of $200.
This is not a disagreement, but the market is "re-betting".
1. SOL's drop to $140 is not a collapse of emotions, but an imbalance of liquidity
In the past week, the price of SOL has been continuously falling from the $160 level, once approaching below $150.
It seems to be just a normal correction, but the key is:
Behind this wave of decline, it is not the selling pressure drawn by the K-line, but the real running of funds.
What does the data say?
According to Artemis data, the net outflow of Solana chain in the past 48 hours exceeded 10 million US dollars, while the second cake (ETH) absorbed about 7.5 million US dollars in net inflow.
The flow of cross-chain bridge funds has also dropped sharply, indicating that users have not only withdrawn SOL, but have not planned to switch chains immediately.
Glassnode's daily coin destruction (CDD) soared to the third highest in history, indicating that long-term "dormant coins" began to circulate - not new money, but old players are adjusting their positions or shipping.
In a word: confidence is evacuating, and buying is not strong enough.
2. SOL's technical form: Only if it can hold 140 can it have a future
From the technical chart, SOL's short-term form is testing the key defense line:
Support range: 141145 US dollars, which is the previous transaction concentration area. If it cannot be held, the space below may go straight to 130135;
Pressure range: 151~153 US dollars, multiple rebounds have failed, indicating that the short-term top has not been broken;
The RSI indicator has fallen into the oversold area, and a technical rebound may occur in the short term, but the momentum is weak.
However, don't rush to be pessimistic. The weekly chart shows that SOL is still in a large **"cup handle pattern"**. If it holds near 140, a rebound to 160-170 will be a natural rhythm.
What is the cup handle pattern?
Simply put, it is an arc-shaped adjustment that goes deep first and shallow later. After breaking through the neckline, it will enter a strong upward channel. In other words, as long as the pattern is not broken, there is still hope for a strong upward attack.
3. Is the fantasy of 300 US dollars still realistic?
We need to face a problem: Is it really reasonable to go up to 200 US dollars this year?
Theoretically, if:
There is no systemic risk in the macro
The general manager of Shichan continues to release water
Solana continues to expand the user and developer ecosystem
On-chain applications resume growth
Institutions continue to intervene
Then it is not impossible to break through the historical high.
But what about now?
On-chain data cooling, user activity decline, DEX transaction volume decline, NFT activity continues to shrink, even "star projects" such as Jupiter and Helium are facing traffic bottlenecks.
Not to mention, Solana still has a lot of historical "mines" in chain stability and technical forks.
Therefore, the 250 US dollar target is theoretically effective, but the reality is far away, and there must be a new detonation narrative to match this valuation expectation.
4. Centralized judgment: This round of decline is actually a test of faith for Solana
Solana fell to 140, and many people panicked. But the real problem is not the price, but:
The market began to question whether it is "the one that can challenge Ethereum".
Don't forget that earlier this year, Solana relied on low fees + high-speed execution, NFT sector, DePIN sector, and meme ecology to become the hottest L1.
Now it's not that there is no technology or ecology, but that attention and confidence are scattered. Speculators leave, funds flow out, and developers migrate. These are the real challenges that SOL has to face.
5. Summary: Breaking 140 is a crisis and a buying point
If 140 holds, it is expected to rebound to 160~170 in the short term;
If it falls below 140, the next stop may see 130 or even lower;
The mid-line is still optimistic about the 250 target, but a new "explosion point narrative" must appear to support sentiment and capital reflux;
At this time, it is not recommended to chase the rise and kill the fall. Waiting for key support confirmation or trend reversal is a more mature choice.
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