I'm unsure if Bitcoin will continue to offer diminishing returns, but it's certainly possible (I currently choose to believe it won't).
However, I believe the trading difficulty and risk of altcoins (on average) will continue to increase, and this trend is irreversible.
(1) Intense competition among increasingly sophisticated buyers (while their confidence in Bitcoin is declining).
(2) Primarily through leveraged trading.
(3) Cryptocurrencies are heavily diluted, and the market defaults to overvaluing them without providing a reasonable basis.
(4) The final valuation at issuance always fully reflects market optimism about the asset, ignoring the actual price/valuation.
(5) The pre-market price discovery mechanism is so active that the situation mentioned in (4) is not safe.
In 2017, the average buyer would buy spot and hold for weeks/months because they believed Bitcoin would rise, then add to their position as the price increased. This strategy was viable due to the asset's low early valuation.
In 2025, the average buyer will buy in via leverage without checking valuations, and sell once they break even or are forced to liquidate.
However, for savvy investors, it will still be the place with the best returns. Skill and asset selection will be more important. Patience will be far more valuable than the "early bird" approach to liquid markets seen in recent years.
Moreover, some assets with excess returns will continue to exist, perhaps appearing every few years. When they do, you can relax and easily take profits, just like in 2017.
At least that's what I think (hopefully).


