Panic has resurfaced regarding Binance… so let’s take a closer look at whether it’s truly in trouble.
> BTC Reserves: 659,000 BTC
This number has been stable for several weeks. There has been no sudden drop, nor any large-scale outflow of funds.
> Reserve Change: 0.6%
This metric tracks withdrawal speed.
- Before the FTX crash: -12% (panic withdrawals)
- Before the Celsius freeze: Reserves decreased by 80%
- Binance today: 0.6% (essentially unchanged)
> Net Fund Flow: Within Normal Range
Daily fund inflows/outflows are no different from other trading days. No unusual patterns, no signs of a run… Compared to actual crashes:
• FTX (November 2022):
- $6 billion withdrawn within 72 hours
- Reserves decreased by 12%
- Exchange suspended withdrawals
• Celsius (June 2022):
- Reserves decreased from $20 billion to $4 billion
- Announced a freeze on withdrawals
- Filed for bankruptcy weeks later
• Binance (currently):
- 659,000 Bitcoins remain stable
- Volatility of 0.6% (very small)
- Withdrawal processing is normal
So, the on-chain data looks good…
When an exchange is truly in trouble, you'll see signs in the data days before the public announcement:
Large-scale capital outflows, sharp decreases in reserves, processing delays
@binance shows no signs of these
Yes, self-preservation is always the right choice. If your private keys aren't in your hands, the coins aren't yours. But there's a difference between sensible security measures and spreading unfounded panic.
The market has already crashed...people are panicking. Adding false threats on top of real ones will only make things worse.
Go check the data yourself: cryptoquant, glassnode, nansen—they're all publicly available.
If Binance really has a problem, it will definitely show up on the blockchain.
Anyway, keep building @cz_binance