Iran is either a win or a loss; the US is either a loss or a defeat.

Brent crude oil prices have risen 70% in the past month. This means that tanker capacity in the Strait of Hormuz will remain at half capacity for an extended period. We are practically already close to this level, as Saudi Arabia is diverting large amounts of oil to the Red Sea while Iran continues to export. Oil prices reaching $150 or $200 are unlikely…

Currently, the US military has suffered over 200 deaths in the Iran war. In 2003, the US occupation of Iraq resulted in over 4,000 deaths. Back then, it was an occupation; now the US is only conducting airstrikes. If ground troops were deployed, the US military would likely suffer tens of thousands of deaths. Iran is not Iraq. Iran is a mountainous country with characteristics similar to the Taliban, is larger than the Taliban, has a population of 90 million, and also has oil.

Trump previously said the attack on Khamenei was his son-in-law Kushner's idea, and that Vice President Vance disagreed. Today, he threatened NATO and Beijing to escort the Holzm frigate. In short, Trump is eager to end the war with Iran.

After threatening war with a NATO ally for a year, rudely referring to another ally as a U.S. colony, and vilifying all those who fought and died for the U.S. in Afghanistan, he still has the audacity to say such things.

The US and Iran have already clashed once, in the Houthi rebels in Yemen. At that time, the Houthis, supported by Iran, clashed with Saudi Arabia, supported by the US. Ultimately, Saudi Arabia lacked the military capability to fight, but possessed the weapons and intelligence that the US had.

Domestic migration is reshaping the political landscape. People are voting with their feet, leaving certain states. The census doesn't lie—loss of residents means loss of representation. You can't fill the void left by new immigrants and then pretend economic policies are working.

hehe.

Has all the bad news for $BTC been priced in? Thank you Khamenei for his self-sacrifice. Thank God. May God be with you.

Any lawyer would have advised him to remain silent. But Powell decided to disclose the Justice Department's investigation. All that remained was to carefully choose his words. His lawyer drove to his home and helped him turn the tide. The question now is whether the Federal Reserve has won this battle while losing the overall war. "I am very pessimistic about whether the U.S. can avoid monetary policy becoming completely partisan during the remainder of Trump's term," said a former senior advisor. This struggle may determine whether the Federal Reserve remains independent or becomes the next institution to succumb to the president's will.