Considering the significant increase in non-on-chain capital inflows this time (such as Bitcoin ETFs), the current $718.78 billion in net capital inflows into the Bitcoin chain over the past year is indeed significant. It's important to note that this $718.78 billion represents actual purchases.
• During the 2012-2013 bull market, net capital inflows into the Bitcoin chain increased from a low of $31 million to a high of $4.46 billion, a 144-fold increase.
• During the 2015-2017 bull market, net capital inflows into the Bitcoin chain increased from a low of $1.52 billion to a high of $88.15 billion, a 58-fold increase.
• During the 2019-2021 bull market, net capital inflows into the Bitcoin chain increased from a low of $37.38 billion to a high of $386.43 billion, a 10.3-fold increase.
• During the 2023-present bull market, net capital inflows into the Bitcoin chain increased from a low of $1.52 billion to a high of $88.15 billion, a 58-fold increase. From $128.41 billion to $718.78 billion today, a 5.6-fold increase.
The top metric in the chart represents the #BTC price, and the bottom metric represents the #BTC: Realized Cap by Age [<1y]
BTC: Realized Cap is an on-chain Bitcoin metric used to measure the total value of the Bitcoin network. Unlike traditional market capitalization (current price × total supply), it estimates the total value of all Bitcoin by calculating the price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain. This metric reflects the actual cost paid by investors, eliminating the impact of untraded, long-held coins, and therefore better reflects the liquidity of capital in the market and the cost basis of holders.
BTC: Realized Cap by Age [<1y] is a sub-metric of Realized Cap that specifically measures the realized market value of Bitcoin that last moved on-chain within the past year. In other words, it only considers the total value of Bitcoin that was traded within the last 12 months, based on the price at which it was last traded. BTC: Realized Cap by Age [<1y] can be viewed as the net capital inflow on the chain over a one-year period.
Referring to the accompanying chart, during a bull market cycle, Realized Cap gradually rises from a low level at the beginning to a high level at the peak, primarily reflecting the gradual accumulation of market capital inflows and the evolution of investor behavior. Specifically:
• Low Realized Cap in the early stages of a bull market: During this period, market prices begin to rise, but new capital inflows are relatively limited, primarily driven by the holding behavior of early holders (such as long-term investors) and a small number of new buyers. Realized Cap grows slowly because most Bitcoin is still priced at a low historical cost, and the actual injection of "new dollars" into the network is relatively small. This indicates a cautious or accumulation phase in the market, lacking widespread fear of excessive volatility (FOMO). Capital primarily comes from redistribution or small-scale purchases by existing holders.
• High Realized Cap at the peak of a bull market: As prices approach or break new all-time highs, a large influx of new investors drives significant net capital inflows. Low-priced Bitcoin is moved in large quantities and repriced at higher prices, leading to a significant increase in Realized Cap. This reflects the market entering a frenzy phase, with veterans gradually taking profits and transferring their holdings to newcomers. This increases liquidity, while new capital inflows (such as institutional and retail buying) peak. This reflects the "redistribution of wealth" and peak demand at the top of a bull market.
Overall, this shift from low to high highlights the core dynamics of a bull market: capital inflows shift from "small and efficient" to "large but costly." It is also a key indicator for identifying market phases and potential top signals.