😂 I've been drinking too much today, and I'm still here now. I was supposed to be analyzing the non-farm payroll data right away, but it's already gone cold. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, which is still within the Fed's expectations. Non-farm payrolls totaled 73,200, a significant decrease from the pre-adjusted figure, but significantly higher than the adjusted present value. Wages are rising at both the annual and monthly rates, demonstrating that the US economy is still strong, with labor force growth being well-organized and employment strong. This is relatively favorable for a Fed rate cut, but one month's data is unlikely to change the Fed's decision, and the unemployment rate hasn't exceeded the Fed's expectations. Unless it exceeds 4.3%, expectations of a Fed rate cut will increase, otherwise it won't be significant. The current focus is still on the game between Trump and Powell. This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh

Fed Chair Bostic: I don't think the jobs data will change this week's FOMC decision. We still expect one rate cut this year. If the data supports that, I'm willing to adjust my view on the Fed.

The way I got up didn't feel right, so I went back to sleep.

BlackRock's $IBIT $BTC spot ETF has nearly 1 million investors, 75% of whom are new to BlackRock's ETFs. Of these new investors, 27% (approximately 185,000) have already started buying other iShares ETFs.

I plan to go to bed early today. I slept no more than 3 hours a day on average during the four days I was away. The most I slept for one day was five hours. I also slept on the plane for two days. I will have a good rest today and resume my normal replies tomorrow. Thank you all for your support.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Atkins: The SEC will instruct its policy department to work with the cryptocurrency working group to implement the White House's cryptocurrency recommendations.

Trump: Mexico has agreed to immediately end its non-tariff trade barriers. The United States will extend its tariff agreement with Mexico for 90 days.

Trump and Mexican Foreign Minister Claudia Sheinbaum to Discuss Tariffs Today President Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will discuss trade and tariffs by phone on Thursday, ahead of Friday's tariff deadline. Sheinbaum postponed a press conference to prepare for the call. Mexican officials have been negotiating in Washington, and Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Mexico has fulfilled its obligations and it is now up to the United States to determine tariffs. Trump earlier warned that tariffs could rise to 30% if Mexico did not step up its crackdown on drug cartels.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun: China suspends investment in the United States due to trade war.

The recently released US PCE data for June wasn't very good. The most important annualized core PCE figure, after a revision to the previous figure, was in line with the previous reading and below market expectations. However, since it was a revised figure, the impact shouldn't be significant. The monthly core PCE figure, in line with market expectations, was above the previous reading. Both the annual and monthly PCE rates are rising, indicating that inflation is currently not favorable. At the very least, a downward trend isn't visible, especially with tariffs expected in two months. The figure could be even higher then. While the weak inflation data reduces the probability of a Fed rate cut, the market isn't focused on this data, but rather on when Trump will announce Powell's successor. After all, whether the current data is good or bad, it's all a game of tactical play between Trump and Powell. Once a replacement is announced, market expectations will rise. After the PCE data was released, the CME's probability of no rate cut in September rose again, from 55% yesterday to 58.8% now. It remains to be seen how the market reacts. I personally believe that if the current macroeconomic data is positive, it will help market sentiment, but if it is negative, the market reaction should be minimal. After all, it's no longer the time when data is the driving force. This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh