"SOL has a bottom signal? Bollinger's lower track + smart capital movement reveals an excellent opportunity!"
Summarize
The current SOL price is $147.79 in the key support zone, the Bollinger band lower rail 144.85 forms double support with the holding cost of 146.14, and the RSI 35 shows oversold but not bottoming out. The continuous outflow of main funds (contract holdings -31.65%) and negative capital fee rates (-0.016%) expose short risks. It is recommended to try long with light positions in the range of 145.5-146.5, stop loss 144.0, target 152.0, and profit-loss ratio 2.5:1. We need to be wary of the intensification of long-short game caused by the surge in DEX trading volume.
Technical analysis
1. Price status:
• Bollinger Band Position: Price is between 144.85 of the lower rail and 148.94 of the middle rail (35.94% Quantle), oversold in the short term but not breaking the position
• MA200 position: The current price is slightly higher than 1 hour MA200 (147.10), with a positive deviation of 0.47% showing a neutral trend
• Holding cost: The current price is higher than the 1-hour holding cost of 146.14 (+1.13%), and the profit-taking selling pressure is limited
2. Market strength:
• Trading volume: The 24-hour trading volume shrinks significantly compared with 0.45 times, and the decline momentum is insufficient
• Volume-price relationship: Price -0.13% slight decline accompanied by volume shrinkage, showing characteristics of volatile bottoming
• Position trend: 8-hour position + 1.41% but price + 1.23%, signs of buying stocks when the main force is low
• Long-short ratio: Smart money long-short ratio 1.7193 (down 4.11% in 24 hours) shows short-term sentiment turns short
• Market news: DEX trading volume surges and price divergence, reflecting the differences between the chain ecology and secondary market
3. Key Positions:
• Support level: 144.85 (Bollinger band lower rail + lower limit of spot maximum transaction range)
• Resistance level: 152.37 (upper edge of spot dense trading area + upper rail of Bollinger band 153.02)
Market cycle analysis
1. Current cycle: In the secondary pullback stage in the medium-term uptrend, the MA200 flattening indicates that the market has entered a period of volatile accumulation
Trading strategy
1. Specific points:
• Entry: 145.5 (median discount on the previous low support and holding cost)
• Stop loss: 144.0 (Break through the Bollinger band lower track will cause the trend to break down)
• Target: 152.0 (top edge of the spot trading area)
• Profit-loss ratio: According to long formula (152-145.5)/(145.5-144)=4.33:1
2. Risk warning:
• Negative perpetual contract rates may trigger short squeeze
• Continuous decline in positions may lead to liquidity exhaustion
• To break through 144.0, stop loss immediately to prevent trend reversal
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$SOL
