US stocks didn't fall much, and Taiwanese stocks are still buoyant! However, after yesterday's Fed meeting, some discrepancies have started to appear in the market! 1. Polymarket estimates the chance of a ceasefire between the US and Iran within two months has dropped to 42%. But currently, the government and most experts expect a ceasefire within one month! Who is wrong? If the ceasefire continues for more than a month, the economic consequences will be enormous, especially for Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea! 2. The probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates this year has skyrocketed to 33%!! A 25 basis point cut is 30%, which the market doesn't seem to have priced in yet. The crisis is still there, but from another perspective, this is also a huge opportunity. We were too naive during the 2020 Covid pandemic and didn't seize this opportunity! Let's see if we can seize it this year!