On Monday, the market's focus wasn't just on the Middle East situation, but also on this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. With oil prices still high, geopolitical risks have fueled inflation concerns. This oil price shock coincided with the Fed meeting. While the market had initially anticipated further rate cuts this year, the bigger concern now is whether rising oil prices will lead to a resurgence of inflation, and whether Powell will continue his dovish stance. The Fed will hold its interest rate meeting this week, March 17-18. At its January meeting, it kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, emphasizing that future actions would be based on data, the outlook, and risks. This week, Powell faces an even more complex environment. On one hand, escalating tensions in the Middle East are driving risk aversion. On the other hand, high oil prices are suppressing inflation and slowing expectations of further easing. For the market, the most challenging environment is high oil prices coupled with high interest rates. High-valuation growth stocks, financing-sensitive companies, and businesses without pricing power often face greater pressure. Another piece of data the Federal Reserve is watching is the US February CPI, which rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year. Looking at this data alone, inflation seems to be slowly cooling down. However, the biggest problem is that this data hasn't fully reflected the new pressure from the recent surge in oil prices. This week, almost no one is expecting a Fed rate cut. Traders tend to believe there will be at most one more rate cut this year, and some funds are even betting on no rate cuts at all. Because of this lack of rate cuts, CRCL's stock price has already soared to over $120 😂.