I'll state a bold claim: for the next two years, starting in 2026, SPY and QQ will no longer possess any long-term investment value (for dollar-cost averaging, buy & hold). IGV's constituent stocks have a total market capitalization exceeding $6 billion, accounting for over 1/10 of the S&P 500's weighting. AI agents (such as Anthropic's Claude Cowork) are completely destroying the seat-based investment logic. Enterprise IT budget growth is only about 8%, but AI budget growth exceeds $100%. This means that almost every penny taken by AI is squeezed from traditional software subscriptions. SaaS will inevitably, or rather, is already, being killed by both the Davis Double Play and the valuation gap, becoming the heaviest burden on the market's upward movement. Looking at other sectors, XLI, XLE, XLP, XLF, etc., their valuations have returned to the extreme highs of the massive monetary easing in 2020 and 2021. Safe-haven funds have already squeezed out these defensive sectors, leaving almost no room for valuation growth. The only sector with growth is the semiconductor sector. The key point is that the value lost in the SaaS collapse doesn't all flow to chipmakers and major companies. AI shortens the value chain, reducing profit losses in intermediate links. This value evaporation means that even with giants like Nvidia, the overall market can't boost IGV. While the SPX has a removal mechanism, its quarterly adjustments can't keep up with the pace of AI evolution. Until these zombie SaaS companies are largely removed from the index and new-generation AI-native unicorns (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and SpaceX) complete their IPOs to fill the gaps, the index may face a prolonged and potentially disheartening period of sideways movement. This is an era for traders, not investors.
Risk and Disclaimer:The content shared by the author represents only their personal views and does not reflect the position of CoinWorldNet (币界网). CoinWorldNet does not guarantee the truthfulness, accuracy, or originality of the content. This article does not constitute an offer, solicitation, invitation, recommendation, or advice to buy or sell any investment products or make any investment decisions
No Comments
edit
comment
collection26
like39
share