It's actually quite simple.
The vast majority of SpaceX's future launches will be dedicated to artificial intelligence computing.
Regardless of whether SpaceX and xAI merge, SpaceX is betting that computing resources will remain scarce and valuable even with exponential growth in global (and super-global) computing power.
If computing resources remain scarce and valuable, the companies that can most effectively acquire massive amounts of computing resources will gain a significant economic advantage.
SpaceX has already invested heavily in this area, and a merger with xAI would allow its shareholders to achieve right-tailed skewed returns.
From xAI's perspective:
The underlying model holds approximately $20 trillion in enterprise value in this business cycle.
Winning this game hinges on securing exponentially growing computing resources in the long term. This computing power is crucial to meeting customers' thirst for even more computing resources and is also essential for developing the ability to meet future customer needs and unlock approximately $20 trillion in business opportunities.
By partnering directly with SpaceX, xAI gained priority access to computing resources, making their availability more predictable once they begin to scale compared to relying on terrestrial data centers and needing to piece together infrastructure partners.
You can think of an Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) provider's 30% profit margin as equivalent to computing financing with an annual interest rate exceeding 40%. That's incredibly expensive. By merging with a computing provider, xAI can access computing resources at a lower cost of capital.
Furthermore, there's an added benefit: their respective strategies are now completely different from other companies in the market.
Win-win