I haven't stopped playing with prediction markets lately, I've just switched to a different approach.
@Polymarket @PolymarketTrade
I've been playing with weather forecasting for the past couple of days, getting beaten up.
The road to long-term positive EV isn't easy.
Interestingly, I've learned about quite a few cities. For example, the Argentine capital, which used to be a real pain in the throat, I can now pronounce easily: Buenos Aires.
I've also started to interpret aviation data and analyze wind direction, but I'm still at a beginner level.
If I could find a safe weather market with a stable 5%-10% daily return, long-term positive EV would be possible. But the allure of weather, as Eason Chan's song says: "The weather doesn't always go as expected, but you still have to fly."
This Northern Hemisphere summer, the weather will allow many people to defy fate.
It's not a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity; it's an opportunity to achieve returns through academics and diversified investment portfolios. This stuff is both imaginative and mundane.