I've been deeply involved with PolyMarket for the past few days. To treat it as information, the premise is that the event is absolutely controlled and someone leaks it. However, based on most of the predictions I've participated in, these conditions aren't met. ESPN also displays win probability predictions before each game, and the win probabilities change or even reverse as the game progresses. PolyMarket is no different; don't be too superstitious about it. The probabilities will change over time.