Let's take a look at the data: Unemployment rate 4.3, participation rate rises slightly to 62.3, manufacturing jobs fall by 12,000 An unemployment rate of 4.5% is a dead end, as I've said many times before Manufacturing companies are hesitant to hire due entirely to tariff threats. The slight increase in the participation rate indicates more people are looking for jobs. The CME initially expected to reach 50 points in September, but more people now believe it will reach 25 points twice in a row. The current battle is over the likelihood of stagflation.