美联储决议倒计时!市场押注97.2%概率按兵不动 ! 美联储又要搞大事了!5月8日凌晨两点,利率决议这颗定时炸弹准时引爆。 市场数据明晃晃摆着:97.2%的人赌利率纹丝不动,就2.8%的狠人在搏降息意外。但别被这组数字骗了,期货市场早就炸开锅——大把资金正疯狂押注下半年连降三次息! 现在全金融圈都盯着两个数字:4月非农就业(新增17.7万人)和核心PCE通胀。要是通胀数据再搞幺蛾子,首次降息铁定从6月拖到7月,利率区间4.25%-4.5%还得再扛三个月。说句大实话,只要不加息就算赢,降息哪怕迟到都是利好! 投资者可得擦亮眼睛:加息周期已经翻篇了,现在美联储按兵不动就是胜利。市场早把降息预期打足了,就算时间推后,股市照样能嗨起来。毕竟在货币政策转向的节骨眼上,预期比现实更值钱! 这场利率决议不光是货币政策的风向标,更是检验市场预判和真实经济差距的照妖镜!
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