XRP is trading at $1.34 – down more than 63% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65 and coming off its worst quarter in eight years – and the next move may be decided not by chart patterns, but by a Senate committee vote.

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act is headed for a Banking Committee markup in the second half of April, and analysts say it represents the single most consequential regulatory event XRP has faced in 2026.

What Is the CLARITY Act and How Does It Affect XRP?

Think of the CLARITY Act as the difference between a company policy and a federal law. Right now, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretive release on March 17, 2026, classifying XRP alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as a digital commodity – shifting primary oversight to the CFTC. That matters. But an interpretive release can be reversed by a future administration, just as it was issued, with a memo.

The bill also resolves the long-running stablecoin yield dispute. Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) reached a compromise in principle on March 20 that bans passive yield on stablecoin balances but permits activity-based rewards tied to payments and platform use – a bank-friendly outcome that cleared one of the bill’s biggest internal obstacles.

Senator Bernie Moreno has publicly warned that if the bill does not reach the full Senate floor by May, midterm election dynamics will push it off the calendar for the rest of 2026. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, who earlier projected 90% passage confidence, has shifted his expected timeline from the end of April to the end of May. Polymarket currently prices passage at roughly 63 to 66% probability for 2026 – meaningful odds, but not a sure thing.

Can XRP Price Break $1.60 Before the CLARITY Act Passes?

Right now, XRP is not moving; it is waiting. Price is holding above $1.20, a level that has already absorbed selling twice, but it still cannot break back above $1.50 where resistance and the 50-day average sit, and with volume below average, it is clear neither buyers nor sellers are stepping in with conviction.

Momentum is not helping either, with RSI sitting around the mid 40s and drifting lower, which fits a market that is just ranging rather than building real strength.

Under the surface, though, there is a bigger story. XRP ETFs already pulled in serious money without full legal clarity, which shows demand is there, but the missing piece is regulation, because if XRP gets locked in as a commodity by law, that is what opens the door for larger funds to step in, turning this from a sentiment play into a structural inflow story.

Until then, the XRP price is stuck between $1.20 and $1.50, moving with Bitcoin and waiting for a real catalyst.

That is why $1.20 matters so much, because if it breaks with volume before any progress on regulation, it likely means the market has already given up on the near-term catalyst, and at that point, the recovery setup gets a lot weaker.

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