Author：链捕手

News of a mass exodus of crypto talent has become increasingly common.

once All in Web3 The person changed their resume to AI BuilderThose who witnessed the industry's unchecked growth are now voting with their feet and leaving.

However, just as most people were leaving, Li Lin returned. It is understood that he recently...AvenirAt the annual meeting, he revealed his intention to return to entrepreneurship.

I. The Crypto World Has Changed

Only by understanding the current state of the industry can one truly grasp what Li Lin's return means.

From a regulatory perspective,The entire industry has finally received a long-awaited legal identity.

USAGENIUSThe enactment of the bill established a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins;CLARITY The bill ended SEC and CFTC A five-year jurisdictional battle;SAB 121 With the abolition of the ban, banks can finally legally hold crypto assets.

At the institutional level,Crypto companies are gaining direct access to the central bank system, and the power structure is quietly being restructured.

KrakenHaving gained access to the Federal Reserve's master account, crypto-native institutions have for the first time achieved equal clearing status with JPMorgan Chase.Circle,BitgoListed on the NYSE; BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase fully entered the market, launching tokenized assets and compliant derivatives; the NYSE parent company ICE invest OKXXu Mingxing officially entered the Wall Street camp.

At the asset level,The daily liquidation volume of on-chain crude oil contracts once exceeded that of Bitcoin—the price fluctuations of traditional commodities have begun to directly affect the on-chain ecosystem, and the risks of the two worlds have become interconnected.

RWA.xyzData shows that, excluding stablecoins, the on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets has exceeded [amount missing]. 250 US$100 million, compared to approximately 100 million a year ago 64 The market capitalization of stablecoins increased nearly fourfold, reaching hundreds of millions of US dollars; against the backdrop of a decline in the overall crypto market capitalization, the market capitalization of stablecoins bucked the trend. 2050 Billions of dollars climbed to 3100 US$100 million.

On the supply side, the story of Bitcoin has shifted from a production-driven logic to a zero-sum game. The 20 millionth Bitcoin has already been mined, leaving only approximately [amount missing] remaining. 100 With tens of thousands of coins yet to be mined, the mining economy is nearing its end. Pricing power has quietly shifted from miners to institutional holders, represented by BlackRock.

In terms of talent,Salaries and token rewards at almost all levels are declining, and even the most steadfast believers are wavering.

Multicoin Capitalco-founder Kyle Samani Announced withdrawal from day-to-day management and shifted to AI Regarding life sciences; the tweet he quickly deleted stated that cryptocurrencies are not as interesting as many people expect, and that blockchain is primarily an asset ledger.

AevoOriginal co-founder Ken Chan He bluntly stated that he had wasted eight years of his life on encryption.a16z Crypto PartnersArianna SimpsonAfter leaving the company, the new fund's investment scope is no longer limited to... Web3.

When you look at these different levels together, you can feel a kind of structural tearing.

The industry's external environment has never been more mature.——Compliance implementation, institutional participation, and asset tokenization are all terms used in traditional finance, but a new set of rules is taking over the industry.

Meanwhile, those who understand the industry best are leaving at an accelerated pace.

These new rules have caused some to lose their familiar battleground; others have discovered that the industry's ultimate destination is not the direction they initially believed it to be; and many others have simply turned their attention to... AI This even larger blue ocean.

Against this backdrop, Li Lin's return is not just an ordinary announcement of starting a business, but a signal.

Second, can Li Lin not come back?

After selling Huobi, Li Lin founded...AvenirGroup,according toRootData Data showsThis is an institutional family office and investment management group that operates through four brands, covering crypto asset management and trading strategies, global multi-asset investment, artificial intelligence and future technologies, and family philanthropic business.

As of 2025End of year,AvenirGroupThe holdingsBlackRock IBIT Quantity is 18,287,323 The stock has maintained its position as Asia's largest Bitcoin holder for seven consecutive quarters. ETF Institutional owner status.

However, its Bitcoin ETF The market value of the holdings from its peak 11.89 US$ billionBased on current estimates(current IBIT Price approximately39.71 The US dollar has fallen to near40% to approximately 7.26 US$100 million.

2025 From 2000 to present,AvenirGroupJoint action4 Each time, they invested in an options trading platform.SignalPlus,Web3 Business education institutionsUWEBCryptocurrency wealth management companiesMetalphaand encryption SaaS Trading technology providerCoinRoutes.

From the perspective of investment targets,Avenir The focus is primarily on institutional trading infrastructure and compliance services, but the size and frequency of the four investments also reflect the inherent limitations of a family-run business: it can handle asset allocation and incubation, but it's difficult for it to truly participate in the market. build.

Avenir I also tried to break through this boundary. In the middle of last year,Bloomberg reported thatLi Lin, together with Shen Bo, Xiao Feng, Cai Wensheng, and other early Ethereum supporters in Asia, plans to establish a large-scale... 10 A $1 billion digital asset trust fund plans to acquire a Nasdaq-listed shell company as a structural vehicle; approximately $100 million has already been secured. 7 US$ billion, of whichAvenirInvestment 2 Billions of dollars, with Sequoia China and other Asian institutions following suit. 5 Billions of dollars. This is the largest investment by Asian investors. DAT plan.

However 1011 Following the incident, the market situation took a sharp turn for the worse, with a large number of... DAT The company's stock price plummeted, the plan was ultimately shelved, all the funds raised were returned, and there has been no news of its restart to date.

This setback demonstrates that relying solely on capital is insufficient to achieve true innovation in this industry.Data shows thatThe number of family offices in Hong Kong has increased to 3,384.indivualSimilar competitors are rapidly entering the market.Avenir The first-mover advantage in asset allocation is being diluted.

Perhaps it was at this moment that Li Lin decided to return to the game.

III. What's different this time?

Sometimes, it's not necessary to look at macroeconomic data to judge the true state of an industry.

Just like the Chinese internet industry during the pandemic, the most valuable indicator often boils down to one thing: keeping an eye on people. Whether Ma Huateng (Pony Ma) will return, whether Zhang Yiming (Zhang Yiming) will return, whether Liu Qiangdong (Richard Liu) will return.

When those who had previously withdrawn or remained dormant choose to place their bets again, the vote they cast with their actions is more honest than any research report.

Because true entrepreneurs don't gamble their future reputation on an industry with no future.

The same applies to the crypto industry.

Original Huobi CFO Chris Lee The article states that Li Lin used to start businesses to make a living, seeing it as an opportunity to create wealth; now he starts businesses for his ideals, investing his own money and trying with a do-or-die mentality to solve the industry's difficulties, rather than replicating the old Huobi model.

When the motivation changes, the decision function also changes.

The new crypto landscape is different from what it used to be. Under the old rules, information asymmetry and regulatory arbitrage might have been possible, but under the new rules, compliance capabilities, institutional connections, and real product strength are more important.

Chris Lee The mentioned"Compliant exchange"It just so happens to be stuck at this rule switching node.KrakenConnected to the Federal Reserve account and Nasdaq's parent companyICE invest OKXThe entire industry is waiting for a true entry point that connects compliance and institutions.

Huobi during Li Lin's tenure was widely recognized for its superior product experience compared to other exchanges of the same period.——UIIn terms of transaction depth and user service, it is at the forefront of the industry.

In a sense, his resources and connections were indeed a good match."Compliant exchange"This direction——They understand regulatory dynamics, the language of Asian institutions, and the logic of connecting traditional finance with cryptography.

However, the current competitive landscape is no longer the same. 201X Year.CoinbaseIt has a compliance moat.Binance There is a monopoly on traffic.OSL,HashKey They've already established a presence in Hong Kong. New entrants need to find a truly differentiated positioning to succeed.

In addition, the execution team is also a key variable. Li Lin has previously played more of a capital decision-maker role, with day-to-day operations mainly handled by a team of professional managers, which may have resulted in a lack of aggressive, competitive spirit.Of course, some people also pointed out that his strong sense of chivalry and loyalty made his judgment in choosing people questionable, which could easily lead to problems when implementing policies.

Starting a business is different from investing; ultimately, it still requires the founder's will to drive it.

This time, Li Lin's decision to personally stand on the front line, a return to the founder's spirit, may be one of the most crucial variables in this outcome.

Conclusion

The crypto industry is never short of stories of wealth creation; what it lacks are people who truly break boundaries.

Huobi is history; there's no need to continue that chapter.

In fact, we no longer need a larger exchange or more complex financial products. What we really want in the industry are more people like Li Lin who can drive innovation that truly opens up new boundaries for the industry.——It's not just about writing another business legend for yourself.

This industry has been waiting for someone like this for a long time.

author:Zhou