Author：区块律动
Original title: Nigel Farage milkshake』d while touring with shady crypto ally
Original author: Protos
Compiled by: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: The relationship between war and capital becomes particularly intriguing when the public stances of politicians intersect with the financial bets in the market.
Recent reports indicate that George Cottrell, a longtime aide to British right-wing politician Nigel Farage, placed a $41,000 bet on the prediction market Polymarket, wagering that a war between the United States and Iran would last at least until June 30, 2026. If the bet is successful, he will win approximately $123,000.
This article revolves around this event, tracing the controversial background of Cottrell and its trading records in the prediction market, and further extending to the emerging network of crypto capital around Farage. From individual speculation to political funds, from prediction markets to military and geopolitical issues, these seemingly disparate threads are outlining an increasingly complex intersection between crypto capital, political figures, and war narratives.
The following is the original text:
A contradiction arises between political stance and personal betting.
George Cottrell, an aide to British politician Nigel Farage, recently placed a $41,000 bet on the prediction market Polymarket, betting that the war between the United States and Iran will continue for at least four more months.
This bet comes against the backdrop of Reform UK's recent public call for an end to the conflict.
In February of this year, after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran, Farage criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for not allowing the US military to use British military bases.
Before shifting its stance this week, the Reform Party had been advocating for Britain's support for the US-led military operation.
However, party politician Robert Jenrick recently stated that the war should be "ended as soon as possible" because it could negatively impact the British economy. Farage subsequently also stated that Britain should avoid involvement in the conflict. However, his reasoning was Britain's inadequate defense capabilities—following a drone attack on Cyprus that raised concerns about security.
Despite the Reform Party's shift in stance, Cotterell still placed bets between March 7 and 9 that the United States and Iran would not reach a ceasefire agreement before June 30, 2026.
Crypto investigator ZachXBT stated that he is "highly certain" that the actual owner of account GCottrell93 is indeed Cottrell.
If this bet goes through, he will gain approximately $123,000. However, current market pricing does not support this assessment, and the trade is currently in an unrealized loss of approximately $6,240.
Politician, gambler, or fraudster? The controversial background of longtime aide George Cottrell.
According to multiple media reports, George Cottrell, who has long been regarded as Nigel Farage's "right-hand man," has always been a controversial figure in British politics.
In March 2017, Cottrell was convicted in the United States of wire fraud. Law enforcement determined that he had agreed to help launder money obtained through drug trafficking and was caught in a sting operation by law enforcement.
Cottrell also lived in Montenegro for a period of time and became involved in investigations related to illicit political financing there. He was also investigated for his use of a cryptocurrency ATM.
In addition, Cotterell is a notorious gambler. He reportedly lost €20 million (approximately $23 million) in a single game of poker in the local area.
His recent trading performance on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket has also been poor. He has bet on several political events, including whether British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will step down, whether the US will strike Iran, and the vote share of New York City's new mayor, Zohran Mamdani. These trades have resulted in losses exceeding $800,000.
Nevertheless, these losses are still insignificant compared to a previous huge profit he made. In the 2024 US presidential election, Cottrell bet on Donald Trump to win, ultimately winning approximately $13.2 million.
Crypto Capital and Nigel Farage's political network
George Cottrell is just one link in Nigel Farage's encrypted relationship network.
This network now also includes former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng and his Bitcoin investment company (Stack BTC). Recently, Farage invested £215,000 (approximately $289,000) in the company.
On the financial front, one of Reform UK's biggest supporters is Tether shareholder Christopher Harborne. Just last week, his cumulative donations to Farage's Reform UK exceeded £22 million (approximately $29.6 million).
The Guardian reported that Tether shareholder Harburn is also linked to a private jet that transported Nigel Farage to the vicinity of the Chagos Islands in late February.
The trip was made against the backdrop of a controversial agreement being pushed forward by the British government: transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, but allowing Britain to continue leasing the local military base for 99 years.
Farage's trip aimed to reinforce Reform UK's opposition to the agreement.
However, the trip did not go smoothly. Farage was initially sent to the Maldives, but was denied entry by the British military when attempting to travel to the Chagos Islands. He then went to Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida to try to discuss the agreement with Trump, but the two ultimately did not meet.
Editor's Note: The core facility on the Chagos Islands is Diego Garcia, a joint British and American military base and one of the most important strategic nodes for the United States in the Indian Ocean. It has long been used for military operations in the Middle East, intelligence gathering, and the deployment of strategic bombers.
Under the agreement pushed forward by the British government, sovereignty over the Chagos Islands will be transferred to Mauritius, but the UK will continue to use Diego Garcia on a 99-year lease, and the base will continue to operate as a joint Anglo-American military base.
The agreement was pushed forward against the backdrop of the International Court of Justice and the United Nations' long-standing view that Britain's control over the Chagos Islands lacked legitimacy, while Mauritius has consistently demanded the return of sovereignty. The British government hopes to resolve this historical dispute through a combination of "return of sovereignty + long-term lease of bases," while maintaining its existing military deployments.
However, Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party strongly oppose the arrangement, arguing that it amounts to handing over British territory and worrying that future use of the base could be subject to political restrictions, thereby weakening Britain's strategic influence.
To express his opposition, Fallaci had planned to travel to the islands to make a political statement. However, the Chagos Islands are a military restricted area, inaccessible to ordinary personnel. He was initially sent to the Maldives and attempted to travel to the islands, but was refused entry to the base islands by the British military.
Farage then traveled to the United States, hoping to garner Trump's support. His thinking was that if Trump publicly opposed the agreement, the US might put pressure on the British government. Therefore, he went to Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida to attempt a meeting, but the two ultimately did not meet.
In addition to holding shares in Tether, Harburn is also one of the largest shareholders of the British defense contractor QinetQ. Over the past year, QinetQ's US subsidiary has secured several US Army contracts, including:
Participating in a $4 billion military surveillance system contract;
It received $41 million in funding to develop counter-drone technology;
They also undertook a research and development contract for a new target acquisition system.
In addition, during the Boris Johnson government, the company also won military contracts worth millions of pounds from the British government.
However, despite the continued stream of contracts, Reuters reported earlier this year that the company is restructuring its U.S. operations due to geopolitical uncertainty and operational and profitability pressures from changes in the procurement cycle.
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