Filecoin (FIL) continues to drift lower on the daily chart as momentum indicators tilt firmly bearish and bulls struggle to reclaim lost ground. 

Recent price action reflects a steady sequence of lower closes, with sellers maintaining control despite sporadic intraday attempts at recovery. 

With key resistance levels remaining unchallenged and the market absorbing broader risk-off sentiment, FIL is now at risk of retesting deeper support if buying pressure fails to stabilize.

Momentum Softens as EMAs Continue Their Decline

Both the short-term and mid-term exponential moving averages slope downward, underscoring a market that has been unable to hold sustained rebounds. 

Daily chart for FIL/USD (Source: GeckoTerminal)

The short-term trend shows clear weakness, signaling that buyers are losing momentum with every failed rally attempt. The longer-term trend echoes this softness, reinforcing that FIL remains in a broader downtrend cycle.

That EMA alignment suggests that upward recoveries may continue to fade as they approach resistance zones, making rallies vulnerable to quick reversals unless buyers step back in with stronger conviction.

MACD and RSI Highlight Bearish Market Control

The MACD remains in negative territory, with the signal line positioned above the MACD line—an arrangement that confirms bearish momentum is still dominant. 

The histogram’s gradual contraction indicates that selling pressure is easing slightly, but the market has not yet shown signs of a meaningful reversal.

Meanwhile, the RSI hovering near the upper 30s to low 40s signals that FIL is losing strength, though not yet deeply oversold. 

That level often suggests a market preparing either for a further leg down or a relief bounce. However, with trend indicators still aligned against the bulls, the bias remains tilted towards additional downside until proven otherwise.

Key Levels: Upside Hurdles and Downside Risk Zones

FIL is currently trading below a tight cluster of resistance levels at $1.653, $1.672, and $1.676—a zone that has repeatedly capped upward attempts. Until FIL decisively breaks above this region, upward momentum will remain severely limited.

On the downside, immediate attention rests on $1.465, a support level that has caught previous declines. A breakdown below this level exposes the far more fragile structural support at $1.367, where the next significant reaction from buyers would typically be expected.

A failure to defend either of those could open the door to deeper retracements, especially given the order-book vulnerabilities.

FIL Order Book Signals High-Risk Scenarios if Critical Bid Walls Fail

Order-book data reveals several influential bid walls that currently prevent FIL from cascading into extreme lows—but also highlight the severity of the potential drop if they are breached.

A large bid wall at $0.50000 supports the market with nearly half a million units. If the price ever breaks below it, the projected downside could be catastrophic—over 66%. A similar dynamic exists at $0.80000, where a significant wall suggests a potential 45% decline if breached. Meanwhile, a third strong bid wall at $0.40000 represents an even deeper danger zone, with downside exceeding 70% should it collapse.

On the flip side, sellers have placed substantial ask walls that could act as triggers for rapid upside acceleration if cleared. The most immediate is at $1.63900, where removal of this liquidity block could fuel a short-term push of roughly 10%. Higher ask walls at $2.20000 and $2.50000 set the stage for larger impulsive moves, potentially lifting FIL by 40–70% if market conditions flip bullish.

The order book therefore reveals a market currently boxed in but primed for volatility if either side’s liquidity thins.

Potential Trading Setups: Long and Short Scenarios

Given the prevailing bearish structure, short-biased setups continue to hold higher probability. A breakdown below $1.465 would offer an opportunity for bearish continuation, targeting $1.367 as the next area of interest. Conservative traders may wait for confirmation via trend continuation signals or a rejection from the 9 EMA.

For long traders, patience remains key. A sustained recovery above $1.653, followed by buyers defending this level as support, would be an early sign that bullish sentiment is returning. Clearing the $1.63900 ask wall could also serve as a trigger for short-term scalps toward higher resistance zones.

More aggressive buyers may consider accumulating near $1.465, but only if stable basing behavior forms—catching falling prices prematurely carries substantial risk given bearish momentum and thinning liquidity.

Fil’s next decisive move will likely come from reactions around these levels, with momentum indicators and order-book behavior providing early clues.