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下周宏观展望:CPI恐「引爆」市场,降息梦要碎?
 威尔硅谷
威尔硅谷
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6 月 7 日,下周重要宏观数据公布节点如下:


周一 22:00,美国 4 月批发销售月率;

周一 23:00,美国 5 月纽约联储 1 年通胀预期;

周三 20:30,美国 5 月 CPI 数据;

周三 22:30,美国至 6 月 6 日当周 EIA 原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存;

周四 20:30,美国至 6 月 7 日当周初请失业金人数、美国 5 月 PPI;

周五 22:00,美国 6 月一年期通胀率预期初值、美国 6 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值。


下周三公布的美国 5 月 CPI 报告将考验市场对降息的乐观情绪,因为它可能显示近期通胀下降趋势停滞。根据克利夫兰联储的 Nowcast 模型预测,5 月份整体 CPI 预计同比增长 2.4%,高于上个月的 2.3%;核心 CPI 预计同比增长 2.8%,与上月持平。分析师预计核心商品三个月年化通胀率将在今秋早段触顶(4%-5%),较 5 月 8 日「对等关税」暂停前的预测略低且延迟。

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