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传奇投资者:致命杠杆已转移,新一轮金融风暴正在酝酿!
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货币探险家
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资深研究
06-02 21:02
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前亚洲最大对冲基金掌门人表示,2025年的致命杠杆已转移至私人信贷与私募股权,当前已有五大危机征兆!
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曾执掌亚洲最大对冲基金Artradis的史蒂夫·迪格尔(Steve Diggle),在2008年全球金融危机期间凭借“做多波动率+做空信贷风险”策略大获成功,向投资者返还30亿美元后于2011年激流勇退。

如今,这位传奇投资人发出警告:“新一轮金融风暴正在酝酿,市场重现2007年危机前的自满与风险定价错误”。其新成立的Vulpes AI多空基金(VAILS)已于5月1日启动,总部设于伦敦而非昔日的新加坡大本营。

“2025年的致命杠杆已从银行转移至私人信贷与私募股权”,迪格尔指出,当前这些资产普遍存在监管缺失、流动性差、估值虚高等问题,且抛售时极易引发连锁贬值。他列举五大危机征兆:

央行政策困局:十年量化宽松与疫情债务堆积后,“全球央行已无力再次实施宽松政策”;

通胀归来:全球化逆转与保护主义正破坏供应链稳定;

地缘冲突:对资产安全构成直接威胁;

美股泡沫:占全球市值三分之二的美股估值处于历史高位;

白宫风险:“全球最大经济体正由不可预测的舵手掌控,其非理性行为持续引发市场剧烈震荡”。

与其他尾部风险基金不同,迪格尔强调其独特优势:“我们成功过”——Artradis在2008年危机中从未限制赎回,而当时多数基金因流动性枯竭冻结客户资金。他特别澄清自己并非如鲁比尼等人般的“永久空头”,当前看空纯属战术选择,核心逻辑是“市场对冲工具严重不足”

VAILS将复刻2008年成功策略,通过股指、个股波动率做多与信用违约互换(CDS)组合对冲风险。但迪格尔承认,如今市场效率提升使套利机会减少,因此基金引入AI引擎作为补充——该模型能扫描海量企业数据,精准识别估值虚高、财务造假或高风险的脆弱资产。

“关键是要在牛市存续期间活下来”,他透露将通过战术性阿尔法收益维持投资者耐心,静待市场修正时刻降临。

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