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小心!美股或遇“5月劫”,200亿巨额抛单箭在弦上
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05-30 15:00
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美股周五或现“例行砸盘”!200亿资金或将出逃,“黄金坑”还是大跌开端?
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美国股市有望以强劲的回报结束5月,但这实际上可能对本周五的美股不利

高盛交易部门的一份报告显示,美国养老基金预计将在月底进行200亿美元的股票抛售,作为其月末再平衡操作的一部分。据高盛数据,这200亿美元的总价值在自2000年以来类似再平衡的净买入或卖出中,位居第86个百分位。

出现这种情况的原因是许多养老金计划调整股债配置比例(可以看作是传统60/40投资组合的大规模版本)。尽管本月股票表现出色,但债券却表现不佳,这意味着在模型投资组合中,需要进行一些重大调整,才能使这两类资产重新达到平衡。SPDR标普500 ETF信托(SPY)本月迄今上涨超过6%,而iShares 20+年期美国国债ETF(TLT)则下跌近4%。

短期债券表现稍好,但即使是Vanguard短期国债ETF(VGSH)本月也仍可能录得负收益。

TLT的1个月走势图显示,长期美债在5月表现不佳。eToro的美国投资分析师Bret Kenwell表示:“我们不习惯看到债券市场出现如此大的波动,特别是养老基金或机构投资者,他们的体量几乎都是数十亿美元。当这些再平衡操作迅速展开时,它确实可能成为短期到中期市场的‘指南针’。”

当然,养老基金的抛售对那些不那么固执的投资者来说,可能是一个买入机会。汇丰银行已于周三将美国股票评级从“减持”上调至“中性”,部分原因是长期投资者持仓量较轻。本周五,一些投资者可能会抓住机会重新进入股市,特别是如果他们更有信心地认为最近几周关税问题将取得明显进展的话。

Kenwell说:“无论是90天的贸易谈判暂停,还是与欧盟的谈判最后期限推迟,亦或是出现法律程序阻止特朗普实施关税政策,我预计华尔街普遍认为,关税问题最糟糕的时期已经过去,局势正朝缓和方向演进。”

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