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观点:比特币或将走出类似2021年的「双顶」结构
爆料中本聪
爆料中本聪
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5 月 14 日,Coindesk 分析师 Oliver Knight 表示,本次比特币的价格走势伴随着与 2021 年相同的链上指标,或将走出一个潜在「双顶」结构。


Oliver Knight 解释称,第一个要关注的指标是周线 RSI,该指标在 2024 年 3 月、2024 年 12 月和 2025 年 5 月分别出现了三次看跌背离。(RSI 是一个技术指标,用于衡量一定时期内的平均涨幅与平均跌幅,以衡量潜在的超买或超卖状况。看跌背离是指 RSI 趋势向下,而价格趋势则向上。)


再加上本次突破时的交易量低于最初突破 10 万美元时的水平,这表明此次上涨的势头正在减弱。加密货币和机构交易平台的交易量均有所下降,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)比特币期货的交易量在过去四周中有三周未能超过 3.5 万份合约。而在上一次突破 10 万美元时,交易量经常超过 6.5 万份合约,有三次超过 8.5 万份。


此外,合约持仓量也与价格出现走势背离,目前持仓量较 1 月份最初上涨至 10.9 万美元时下降了 13%,而价格仅下跌了 5.8%。四年前,当比特币达到 6.9 万美元时,尽管价格上涨了 6.6%,但持仓量却比最初的 6.5 万美元高点下降了 15.6%。


Oliver Knight 补充表示,这些指标确实表明,尽管比特币价格可能像 2021 年那样创下新高,但这一走势的势头正在减弱。

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