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油价强势反弹超3%!技术性修正还是四年低点就是底部?
货币探险家
货币探险家
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资深研究
05-07 16:04
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周一还创四年新低,周二油价就上演“绝地反击”,两油双双飙升超3%,这是触底反弹还是昙花一现?
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在技术指标显示原油近期跌势可能过度后,油价周二从四年多来最低收盘价大幅反弹

周二美盘,两油均涨超3%布伦特原油过去六个交易日下跌近10%后升至每桶62美元上方,WTI原油重回59美元上方。技术面方面,两油近期在九日相对强弱指数(RSI)上跌入超卖区域,并跌破了布林带下轨。此外,油市已经出现了一些初步疲软迹象,布伦特原油期货的现货溢价结构是自2月以来最小的。这些指标都表明油市近期的跌速过快。

有迹象表明,较低的油价正开始对欧佩克以外地区的供应产生影响

二叠纪盆地最大的独立生产商响尾蛇公司(Diamondback Energy Inc.)下调了全年产量预测,表示预计到第二季度末,美国陆上石油钻机数量将下降约10%。另一家大型页岩油生产商也表示正在削减钻井活动。

欧佩克+上周末同意从6月开始进一步增产后,油价周一下跌,沙特警告称,如果超额生产的成员国不遵守规定,可能会进一步增产。由于世界两大经济体之间的贸易紧张威胁到全球增长,油价接近四年低点,欧佩克+的行动加剧了原油期货的看跌压力

盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示:“焦点正从已经被消化的欧佩克+增产转向需求,而需求又取决于全球贸易战,特别是能否找到解决方案。美国页岩油生产商暗示未来几个月在维持产量方面将面临更艰难时期,这也支撑了油价。”

美国总统特朗普表示,他愿意在某个时候降低对中国的关税,因为税率太高,两国实际上已停止彼此的商业活动。

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