U.S. President Trump hopes for oil andnatural gasThe industry "increases drilling efforts" to promote its energy-led agenda, butCompanies that actually participated in this agenda were hit.

U.S. crude oil prices have fallen below $65 a barrel, down more than 20% since Trump's second term began, according to a survey by the Dallas Fed.This makes it unprofitable for many companies to increase production.

U.S. shale oil executives criticize sharply in anonymous response to the same investigationTrump's policy wording. According to Mason Hamilton, vice president of economics and research at the American Petroleum Association, they used the term “uncertainty” more times in their comments than in any quarter in the five years since the outbreak of the coronavirus.

Oilfield service companies Baker Hughes, Halliburton）And Schlumberger (SLB) warned that investment in exploration, drilling and production will slow this year due to falling oil prices. Since Trump took office, Baker Hughes and Schlumberger's shares have fallen by more than 20%, while Halliburton has plunged 32%. The S&P 500 energy sector has fallen more than 11% since January 20, surpassing the market's decline by nearly 8%.

Schlumberger CEO Olivier Le Peuch told investors last week that Trump’s tariffs are creating economic uncertainty that could hurt demand, while OPEC+ oil-producing countries accelerated production growth faster than initial expectations.

"In this environment, commodity prices are facing challenges before they stabilize," Le Peuch said in a conversation with analysts and investors on Schlumberger's first-quarter earnings call last week.Clients may take a more cautious approach to recent activities and non-essential spending.”

Drilling activity decreases

Le Peuch said North American oil markets face greater downside risks than the rest of the world, as U.S. onshore oil production is more sensitive to commodity prices.

Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli told investors on his earnings call last week that global upstream exploration and production investment is expected to drop higher single-digit percentages this year from 2024, and North American spending will drop double-digit percentages.

"The prospect of oversupply in the oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and weak Saudi production activities have all restricted the level of international upstream spending," Simonelli said.

But the situation is changing, with little visibility into what will bring in the second half of the year, especially for economically sensitive activities such as drilling and completion. He said the outlook even has the risk of further deterioration.

"These expectations assume that oil prices are stable at current levels and that tariffs remain at the current 90-day moratorium. Continuous decline in oil prices or deterioration in tariffs will bring further downside risks to this outlook," Simonelli said.

As for Halliburton CEO Jeffrey Miller, he said clients are “evaluating their event scenarios and plans for 2025.” Miller warned on a recent earnings call in Halliburton that reduced activity could lead to “above normal levels of idle time,” referring to the time the device was not in use.

Schlumberger expects revenue to remain flat or achieve medium-single-digit growth in the second half of the year. Baker Hughes expects the impact of tariffs on profits before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to be between $100 million and $200 million, assuming that tariff rates will no longer increase this year. Halliburton predicts that trade tensions will hit its earnings per share by 2 to 3 cents in the second quarter.

Energy Minister promises

William Hendricks, CEO of drilling contractor Patterson-UTI Energy, said on the company's earnings call that the company also saw uncertain prospects, although activity levels have not been affected yet. Patterson-UTI's share price has plummeted about 35% since Trump took office.

"If oil prices remain near current levels for a longer period of time, we may see some customers reevaluating their plans," Hendricks said.Exploration and production companies are waiting to see if oil prices can rebound to the range above $60 per barrel.

"If oil prices remain below $60, we may see some weakness. Of course, there will be some exploration and production companies that decide to cut budgets," Hendricks said.Even under $60, I don't think the customer base we serve will react violently。”

U.S. Secretary of Energy White admitted to oil and gas executives at a meeting in Oklahoma City last week,There is currently “a lot of anxiety and uncertainty” in the industry. "It will disappear in a few weeks, maybe it will take months, butI think we'll have a clear idea about this in a few weeks."He also defended Trump's trade policy. Liberty Energy, an oilfield service provider founded by White, has plummeted nearly 46% since Trump took office.

White argued at the Oklahoma conference,U.S. reindustrialization brought by Trump's trade policy will ultimately boost energy demand. In an interview with CNBC, the U.S. Secretary of Energy saidNot expected to see significant decline in U.S. oil production. "Our administration has no impact on short-term fluctuations in oil or any other commodity prices," he said. He also noted Trump's efforts to cut regulation and speed up approvals, "we are doing everything we can to reduce the production costs per barrel of oil."