At the beginning of this year,The U.S. economy shrinks for the first time since 2022, the reason isImports before the U.S. imposes tariffs soarandConsumer spending is soft, this is the first microcosm of the chain reaction caused by US President Trump's trade policy.

The inflation-adjusted GDP in the first quarter was a total annual rate of annual growth, according to preliminary estimates released by the U.S. government on Wednesday.-0.3%，The market expectation of a growth of 0.4% is also far lower than the average growth rate of about 3% in the previous two years.This is the weakest economic growth in the United States since the first quarter of 2022. It is rare for the negative growth of US GDP to occur, and it has only occurred three times in the past 10 years.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts that after excluding gold imports and exports, GDP will drop by 0.4% in the first quarter, while Goldman Sachs' tracking model shows a contraction of 0.2%.

However, the U.S. economic contraction in the first quarter was mainly due to unexpected increases in imports by businesses and consumers trying to rush ahead of Trump's tariffs in early April. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis report shows thatNet exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP.

Consumer spending (two-thirds of GDP) grew 1.8%, the lowest level since mid-2023. Enterprise equipment spending was a highlight in the report, with an annualized increase of 22.5%.

Looking ahead, many economists expect higher tariffs to cause supply shocks, challenge businesses and lead to a decline in demand as prices push cash-strapped Americans to the brink of collapse.

Forecasters currently believe thatThe chances of the United States falling into recession next year are almost 50%. Consumers are also increasingly worried that tariffs will have an impact on the labor market and push up the cost of living. Kalshi, a U.S. financial trading and forecasting market platform, currently expects a 74% chance of a U.S. recession this year.

The latest GDP data shows thatImports have surged by about 41%, the largest increase in the past five years. Because these goods and services are not produced in the United States, they need to be subtracted in GDP. Economists predict thatThe trend of a sharp expansion of the U.S. trade deficit will reverse in the second quarter.

Normally, imported goods will enter the warehouse or go directly to the store. However, the report showed that corporate inventory contributed 2.25 percentage points to GDP in the quarter, the highest level since the end of 2021.Large imports in the near future may reflect higher inventory in the coming months, coupled with a narrowing trade deficit, boost U.S. GDP in the second quarter.

As volatility in trade and inventory sometimes distorts overall GDP, economists tend to focus on final sales to domestic private buyers in order to better understand demand. The indicator grew at a rate of 3% in the first quarter, while the annualized growth rate at the end of 2024 was 2.9%.