• Dogecoin has exhibited some impressive resilience lately, but it’s hitting a wall at its overhead resistance
• Breaking past $0.20 is crucial for the bulls to take control and push for more gains

Dogecoin’s [DOGE] 10.25% weekly rally to $0.193 has left some high-cap rivals in the dust. Typically, it is a cue for FOMO to kick in. However, instead of a buying frenzy, DOGE is still stuck below $0.20. In this market, calling for a $0.74 target feels like reaching for the stars.

With overhead supply zones stacking up, DOGE has a tough road ahead. Especially if it wants to break through and hit that elusive level.

Dogecoin’s valuation is barking louder than its volume

No doubt, DOGE has muscled its way into the top 10 crypto assets, flexing a massive $26 billion market cap.

However, let’s be real – It’s more about that massive 150 billion token supply than any groundbreaking use cases. 

That’s not all either as Dogecoin’s Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has shot up to a three-month high. This basically means its market cap is zooming past on-chain transactions.

In other words, network activity remains sluggish, with both new and active addresses trailing below pre-election levels. 

To put it in perspective – During November’s breakout, new addresses soared past 100k as DOGE blasted through $0.40. Today? Just 12,629.

That makes DOGE’s recent relief rally look more like a speculative sugar rush, than a fundamentally-backed breakout.

Sure, Dogecoin is still rocking its “high-risk, high-reward” appeal but right now, DOGE seems to be running in circles. It’s chasing its own hype with no real FOMO spark.

Unless it convincingly breaks above $0.20 with solid volume, it is likely to remain structurally capped. Hence, the $0.74 target remains firmly in the realm of wishful thinking.

No supply shock in sight

Dogecoin, at the time of writing, was flashing red. Overvaluation alerts on one side and yet, Options volume just popped by 9.11%. 

In fact, derivatives Open Interest hit a monthly high of $1.87 billion too, with the crowd piling in like it’s 2021 all over again.

This sets up a textbook case of blind greed. In the last 24 hours alone, $3.11 million worth of long positions got wiped clean.

Compounding the sell-side pressure, whale activity has significantly fallen too. Approximately 4,000 addresses holding over 10k DOGE pulled the plug, signaling reduced confidence among larger holders.

So, that $0.74 target? It’s more of a pipe dream than a future reality – At least until DOGE fixes its weak spots.