China has reportedly surged ahead of the United States and the European Union in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), according to new data shared by Tesla and xAI CEO Elon Musk. 

Musk attributed the figures to his AI firm’s model Grok, which placed China’s GDP in 2025 reaching $35.29 trillion. This is compared to $28.78 trillion for the United States and $21.99 trillion for the EU.

In a post on April 29, Musk talked about the numbers and said, “This comes as a surprise to most people.” The numbers he gave suggest that China’s economy is about 1.23 times bigger than the US economy and 1.6 times bigger than the EU economy, based on PPP figures.

This comes as a surprise to most people
https://t.co/0UXAuA6BE4

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 29, 2025

World Economics also published projections that were in line with Musk’s claim. It estimates China’s 2025 GDP to be $43.2 trillion, up from $41.3 trillion in 2024 and 26% higher than the World Bank’s official figures.

China’s economic state stronger than US in 2025

The National Bureau of Statistics, which assessed China’s GDP on April 16, announced that it reached 31.88 trillion yuan, or approximately $4.4 trillion, a 5.4% increase year over year in real terms. 

Yup. China has a huge population, an education system that focuses on science & engineering, and little red tape when it comes to mega projects.

The US will fall further behind if nothing is done.

Complicancy is the enemy.

— Sam Kampner (@KampnerSam) April 29, 2025

Total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter stood at 12.5 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion), a 4.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Growth in March reached 7.7%, the highest since December 2023. Online retail sales climbed upwards of 7.9% to 3.6 trillion yuan ($493.2 billion) in the same period.

Total trade volume reached 10.3 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in the first quarter, up 1.3% year-on-year. Exports rose 6.9% to 6.1 trillion yuan ($834.4 billion), but imports fell by 6% to 4.2 trillion yuan ($567.5 billion), against the backdrop of weak domestic demand. Total trade reached 3.8 trillion yuan ($512.5 billion).

US economy slows down on tariffs account

On the other side, the United States appears to be heading into a slower growth phase in early 2025. Still, the US Treasury Department has stated that official GDP data for the first quarter will not be released until after this week’s meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) on April 29.

According to a Wall Street Journal survey conducted in mid-April, the median forecast for US GDP growth in Q1 stands at just 0.4% on an annualized basis. This marks a notable decline from the 2.4% pace recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024. Survey responses varied, with some economists projecting as little as 0.1% growth, and others on the higher side. 

The forecasts came before President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs on April 9, and will likely be revised on the lower side.

On Wednesday, April 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will give its first estimate of growth for the first quarter. Analysts think the top number will be low, and many institutions think the number will either stay the same or go down. Goldman Sachs thinks it will go down by 0.2%, while Bank of America thinks it will go up by 0.4%.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, offered one of the most pessimistic estimates, suggesting GDP may have shrunk by 1.4% in the first quarter. He resonated his predictions to weaker consumer spending and delayed business investment.

“There’s a high likelihood of a contraction in the first quarter,” Adams reckoned.

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