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Western gold holdings are far from enough! Is the downward risk of gold prices extremely limited?
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Traders may avoid making any directional bets on gold before U.S. economic data bombards...
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Gold prices are falling as key U.S. economic data approaches this week, which could reveal the impact of Trump's tariff war. Tuesday Asian Handicap,Spot goldIt once lost $3,310 per ounce, and fell by more than 1% during the day.

On Monday, gold, as interest-free assets, turned from a decline to a rise amid a poor economic data pushing lower U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, JPMorgan said it is expected to be as investors continue to sell U.S. assets under Trump's policyThe dollar will usher in another round of weakness. The dollar fell 0.5% on Monday, making gold in dollar terms cheaper for most buyers.

"We're starting to see," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.Preliminary signs of exhaustion of sell-off”, addingThe downside risk of gold is extremely limited.He said“Western investors, especially discretionary traders or macro funds, are completely inadequate in the final stage of gold’s rise, so the selling activity is limited, and the rising gold price reflects this.”

The Trump-induced trade war has sparked safe-haven demand for gold, driving gold prices to hit record highs in recent months, despite a decline since hitting the $3,500 mark last week.

The U.S. president claims that relations with China have made progress. However, China has repeatedly denied that the two countries are in trade negotiations.

"Before we see lower highs and lower lows, and a solid trade deal rather than more bluffs from the Trump administration," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.The prospect of gold hitting new highs cannot be ignored.

Traders continue to weigh the global economic outlook against the backdrop of rapid development of the U.S.-led traders are full of high uncertainty in their impact. With a series of reports on U.S. jobs, inflation and economic growth released this week, the consequences of Trump's tariff policy will be clearer.

A widely-watched indicator of Texas manufacturing activity has weakened significantly Monday, a report from the Dallas Fed showed.Business executives use words such as "chaotic" and "crazy" to describe the turmoil caused by the White House tariffs.

A Reuters poll showed that most economists believe the global economy is at a high risk of falling into recession this year, with dozens of people saying Trump’s tariffs hurting business sentiment.

Gold prices have risen more than 25% this year as expectations for a global trade war and economic slowdown, and tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed have stimulated safe-haven demand. In addition, funds from gold-backed trading open-end index funds (ETFs), purchasing behavior by central banks, and strong speculative demand in China have also supported the rise in gold prices, despite a decline in physical consumption in the world's largest gold consumer.

Before the US economic data took turns to bombard,Traders appear to be avoiding any new directional bets on the dollar and gold.Fxstreet analysts pointed out that from a technical point of view, after the failed attempt on Monday, gold once again tested the lower edge of the rising channel on the daily chart that had lasted for three weeks, facing the possibility of a downward break. However, since the 14th-day relative strength indicator (RSI) is still higher than the mid-line level,Any downward trend may prompt buying intervention.

If gold wants to confirm that it has fallen below the upward channel, the closing price on Tuesday must be lower thanUptrend line support at $3300, the reliable support position immediately following it is at$3260 area. If it continues to fall below this support level, it will open the door for a new round of declines, and gold may fall to the $2,975 area, which is the starting point of the record rise in early April. Prior to this, the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3215 and the 50-day simple moving average at $3068 will test the determination of the bulls.

on the other hand,If gold bulls hold the above-mentioned channel support level of $3300, then gold will inevitably rebound to the fixed resistance level of $3370.If it can continue to rebound, the subsequent target will point to an all-time high of $3,400 or even $3,500.

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