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阿波罗首席经济学家:最迟2025夏季,美国全面衰退不可避免!
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CEO信心雪崩,消费者恐慌指标全线飘红,2025年夏季经济衰退警报拉响!
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“这是一场典型的滞胀冲击。”阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克(Torsten Slok)在最新研报中敲响警钟。该机构警告,特朗普政府本月“解放日”后,从中国驶往美国的集装箱船运量已断崖式下跌,按照20-40天运输周期推算,5月中旬起全美港口将出现货物真空,随后引发连锁反应:卡车运输需求崩盘→零售库存枯竭→春季销售萎靡→5月底至6月初大规模裁员潮。“最迟2025年夏,全面经济衰退将不可避免。”

研报指出,尽管关税计划公布仅数周,滞胀的幽灵已开始显现——贸易冲突同时打击供应链效率与贸易总量,导致经济活动停滞;而对进口商品加征对等关税又推高物价、削弱市场竞争。这种“增长停滞+通胀飙升”的组合,正是四十年来未曾出现的经济噩梦。

《首席执行官》杂志最新调查显示:62%的企业高管预测未来6个月将出现经济放缓或衰退。认为会出现“严重衰退”的CEO比例从3月的9%飙升至4月的14%。更惊人的是,年初尚有84%CEO预计营收增长,而4月调查中这一比例骤降至49%;预期营收下降者则从9%激增至44%。

阿波罗首席经济学家斯洛克上周日发布的最新图表显示:仅偿还信用卡最低还款额的家庭比例创历史新高。费城联储数据证实,信用卡账户"最低还款"比例达12年峰值,违约率亦逼近或刷新纪录。

密歇根大学社会研究所的消费者调查显示,4月消费者信心指数从3月的57降至52.1。约三分之二消费者认为今年失业率将上升(半年前该比例仅为三分之一)。所长兼经济学家乔安妮·许(Joanne Hsu)在报告中警告:“令人震惊的是,消费者对收入前景的担忧正在加剧”。

调查显示:不足50%的人预期收入增长,近三分之二认为未来数月购买力将持续萎缩

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