At three o'clock in the morning, Wall Street traders are glued to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision; analysts in the Tokyo market are meticulously calculating the Bank of Japan's balance sheet; in Beijing time's crypto community, a single message—"M2 has exploded again"—sends countless people into sleepless nights. The fate of global capital markets is tightly bound by an invisible "monetary cable," each tremor of which sends shockwaves through Bitcoin's price charts. Data reveals an 83% correlation between Bitcoin prices and global liquidity trends over any 12-month period, yet March 2025 witnessed a bizarre anomaly: despite continuous expansion of global M2 money supply, Bitcoin plummeted from its  $100,000peaktothe$100,000peaktothe80,000 range. What hidden undercurrents of capital lie behind this "divergence"?

Global macro liquidity, simply put, refers to the abundance of money and the flow of funds on a global scale. When global macro liquidity is loose, there is more money in the market, and people have more spare money. Naturally, the enthusiasm for investment rises. As an emerging investment asset, Bitcoin has attracted the attention of many investors. With more money available, people are more willing to invest a portion of it in Bitcoin. As the demand increases, the price of Bitcoin also goes up.

For example, during the pandemic, in order to stimulate the economy, many countries adopted loose monetary policies and printed a large amount of money. This led to a significant increase in the amount of money in the market, and global macro liquidity became extremely loose. At that time, the price of Bitcoin soared from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands of dollars. This is the driving effect of loose global macro liquidity on the price of Bitcoin.

Conversely, when global macro liquidity tightens, there is less money in the market, and investors' funds become tight. At this time, people tend to put their money in safer places, and Bitcoin, an asset with relatively high risk, will be sold off. As the demand decreases, the price of Bitcoin naturally falls.

For instance, when a country announces an interest rate hike or reduces the money supply, it means that global macro liquidity begins to tighten. At this time, panic often emerges in the Bitcoin market, and investors sell off Bitcoin one after another, causing the price to drop significantly.

In addition to directly affecting the supply and demand relationship of Bitcoin, global macro liquidity also influences the trend of Bitcoin by affecting investors' emotions and expectations. When global macro liquidity is loose, investors are more optimistic about the future economic prospects. They believe that Bitcoin, as an asset with the potential for value preservation and appreciation, still has a lot of room for growth in the future, so they actively buy it. When global macro liquidity tightens, investors become more cautious and worry that the price of Bitcoin will fall, so they choose to sell.

Moreover, changes in global macro liquidity also affect the relative attractiveness of Bitcoin compared with other assets. When global macro liquidity is loose and the yields of other traditional assets decline, Bitcoin becomes more attractive, and investors are more willing to invest their funds in the Bitcoin market. When global macro liquidity tightens and the yields of other traditional assets rise, the attractiveness of Bitcoin decreases, and funds will flow out of the Bitcoin market.

In conclusion, global macro liquidity is like an invisible hand that silently influences the trend of Bitcoin. As Bitcoin investors, we must closely monitor the changes in global macro liquidity so that we can better seize investment opportunities in Bitcoin and reduce investment risks. In this volatile cryptocurrency circle, only by understanding the underlying logic can we walk more steadily and farther on the investment path.