The following are the research and views of many futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only

gold

Transaction logic: The Trump administration sent signals of tariff adjustments to China, but the White House quickly clarified that "not unilateral tax cuts";USD IndexRebounded since three years of lows; the Federal Reserve's Beige Book warned 107 times that "tariffs boost corporate costs" weakened gold's anti-inflation premium; expectations for potential downgrades in Sino-US trade frictions continue to heat up

Risk factors: The International Monetary Fund has significantly lowered its outlook for U.S. and global growth this year; Trump's tariff expectations have been repeated; investors increasingly regard gold as a strategic safe-haven asset; central banks continue to buy; Federal Reserve governor Waller said that if the job market declines severely, it may cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more and faster

Events: Trade tensions between the United States and China; pace and scale of gold reserve increase in global central banks (China); pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; subsequent corrections to the target price of gold by investment banks (such as Goldman Sachs and UBS)

crude

Trading logic: The Federal Reserve releases a signal of interest rate cuts; there is no expectation of a calm geopolitical situation in the Middle East; Trump talks about the fact that if the Russian-Ukraine agreement cannot be completed by the deadline, Russia may face a new round of sanctions; a refinery in Dongying will be suspended this week

Risk factors: The expected pressure for further increase in production and compensatory cuts to fail is particularly high; Kazakhstan minister said the country could not reduce oil production from its three large oil production projects; U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 443.104 million barrels, up 244,000 barrels from the previous week

Focus on events: Low oil prices give space to US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran; OPEC+ subsequent crude oil production situation; US tariff policy; progress of US sanctions against Venezuela; progress of maintenance of European, American and domestic refineries, etc.

Glass

Transaction logic: The total inventory of floating glass sample enterprises nationwide is 65.4733 million heavy boxes, up 395,000 heavy boxes month-on-month; the production capacity of photovoltaic glass continues; the industry mentality is still pessimistic, and the willingness to stock up on a large scale is relatively lacking.

Risk factors: The daily melting volume of glass is 157,800 tons, a decrease of 00,700 tons from last week; spot market prices continue to rebound; there are still expectations for stocking in the middle and lower reaches before the May Day holiday; Guangdong, Shanghai and other places plan to issue the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption"

Events to focus: exchange delivery policy trends; important domestic meetings were held in late April; macro sentiment and spot glass transactions, etc.

copper

Trading logic: The Federal Reserve will consider a rate cut, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in June begin to heat up; stockings may be further accelerated before the holiday; the United States considers reducing the tariff rate on all commodities on China to 50%-65%; the Panama copper mine restart negotiations are unfavorable, and the medium-term tightening pattern of the global mine end has not changed; an accident occurred in the Antaminea copper mine, one of the world's largest copper mines, and production was suspended due to safety reasons.

Risk factors: The global refined copper market has oversupply of 150,000 tons in the first two months of this year; there is a potential drag on the global economy and copper consumption in the future; China's refined copper production in March increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 1.25 million tons

Events to focus: The impact of the US tariffs on copper on market sentiment; the evolution of Sino-US trade situation; the follow-up situation of the Antaminea copper mine in Peru, etc.

Concentration European Line

Trading logic: The European line quotes of many shipping companies continued to the April quotations, and even lowered; the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone continued to be in the contraction range in March; the US line ships in the OA Alliance spilled out to the European line, increasing the supply pressure of the European line; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (Comprehensive Index) was 1347.84 points, down 22.74 points compared with the previous period

Risk factors: US Treasury Secretary hinted that Sino-US relations will ease, driving the improvement of expectations of collective transportation; it is expected that European industry and retail industries will still have expectations of restocking in May and June; the May Day holiday factor will continue to decline in capacity during the week

Events to focus on: US policies to Europe and China-Europe foreign trade data; China's expansion of ASEAN and EU market progress, can it hedge the decline in exports to the United States; changes in the situation between China and the United States, etc.

Palm oil

Transaction logic: The Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA) met with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials on Wednesday to call for an increase in renewable energy quota obligations (RVOs) in 2026; low inventory at home and abroad may improve seasonally; China has not added much new purchases, but shipping schedule procurement increased in May;

Risk factors: The production area has entered the production increase season, and Malaysia's production continues to rebound; Malaysia's palm stocks are expected to continue to increase in April; the double increase in palm oil supply and demand in Southeast Asia may suppress prices

Pay attention to events: growth on the supply side and performance on the demand side; the impact of weather on foreign production; the recent increase in tariffs between China and the United States and China-Canada tariffs, and pay attention to progress; Indonesia's production increase in 2025/26; changes in India's procurement rhythm; the impact of US diesel policy, macroeconomic sentiment on oils

Coking coal

Transaction logic: Recently, environmental protection inspections have tightened radiation and gas, resulting in a significant decline in port customs clearance; some coal mines have been producing production cuts after completing their monthly tasks;Delayed shipments in Australia, and heavy rainstorms caused inventory shortages; port coking coal inventory has declined, and steel coking companies replenish raw coal on demand

Risk factors: Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level this year; coking coal price reduction has increased, with a drop of around 20-30 yuan/ton; mining profits at the mine remain in place, and there is room for growth in future output

Attention: the continued situation of high iron production; demand recovery; supply disturbances in the main coking coal producing countries; important domestic meetings held in late April

Disclaimer

The information in this article is all derived from the compilation of public information. This article strives to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information, but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. You are responsible for investing based on this.