Following Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor’s prediction, Bloomberg’s Balchunas shares the only way BlackRock’s IBIT could overtake VOO as the largest ETF globally.

Saylor Predicts IBIT to Become Largest ETF Globally

At a recent Bitcoin-focused conference hosted by Bitwise, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor made an audacious prediction regarding the ETF market. Specifically, Saylor projected that within the next decade, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) could surpass all competitors to become the largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the world. 

Currently, Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which boasts an impressive $559 billion in assets under management (AUM), holds the top spot in the global ETF market. Since its launch in September 2010, VOO has become a staple for long-term equity investors. 

In contrast, IBIT, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, launched just over a year ago and has already ascended to the 34th-largest ETF globally. It manages $54.8 billion in AUM, roughly one-tenth the size of VOO. Despite its relatively recent debut, IBIT has shattered numerous ETF launch records and continues to capture institutional interest at a rapid pace.

Bloomberg ETF Analyst Reacts

Reacting to Saylor’s forecast, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas presented his opinion on X. While he acknowledged that IBIT’s first year has defied expectations by setting record inflows, he pointed out the massive gap between IBIT and VOO’s scale. 

Balchunas stressed that VOO is ten times larger than IBIT in AUM and currently attracts five times more capital inflows on a daily basis.

I would never say never re $IBIT bc it broke every conceivable record it’s rookie year but.. King VOO is curr 10x bigger and hauls in 5x more cash every day = would take a flat or negative decade for US stocks while btc moons. https://t.co/2htftYoVyD

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 24, 2025

Particularly, Balchunas noted that for IBIT to catch up, it would need to consistently draw in over $1 billion per day, potentially as high as $3 billion to $4 billion daily, to outpace VOO’s momentum. 

He added that such an extraordinary change would demand an unprecedented combination of market conditions. Notably, these conditions would involve a potential stagnation or downturn in U.S. equities alongside a significant surge in Bitcoin’s value and adoption.

IBIT Netflows Compared to VOO Netflows

Recent netflows show the challenge ahead for IBIT. On April 22, IBIT recorded a positive netflow of $193.4 million. That figure rose sharply to $643.1 million on April 23, the highest single-day inflow for IBIT since January 21. On April 24, IBIT attracted another $327.3 million. 

By comparison, VOO saw $317.5 million in net inflows on April 21 and an even higher $832.79 million on April 22. Interestingly, VOO’s largest daily netflow this month was $4 billion on April 7 alone. Meanwhile, IBIT’s total netflows for this month currently total $998 million. 

Balchunas concluded that while Saylor’s prediction isn’t entirely out of the question, it will depend on a dramatic change in the financial ecosystem—one where Bitcoin experiences exponential growth and investor behavior changes substantially.