• Cardano’s sentiment and technicals aligned as outflows signal investor confidence.
• Retail engagement rises while whales reduce exposure, forming a bullish structural base.

Cardano [ADA] sentiment has flipped decisively bullish, with crowd and smart money indicators printing healthy scores of 1.24 and 1.99, respectively.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.6846, down 1.83% in 24 hours. However, this minor dip came amid strong structural signs suggesting growing confidence and strategic positioning for a possible move higher.

Despite the minor pullback, the alignment between rising sentiment and improving technical structure suggests that market participants may be positioning for a stronger upside move.

Technical structure aligns with bullish momentum

ADA reclaimed both its 9-day and 21-day Moving Averages (MA), sitting at $0.6434 and $0.6301, respectively, at press time.

These levels serve as dynamic support, laying the groundwork for a potential price recovery.

The Parabolic SAR has flipped below the price at $0.6153, signaling continued bullish momentum. However, ADA must surpass the $0.7626 resistance level, which has limited multiple bullish attempts in recent months.

A decisive breakout above this zone, especially with strong trading volume, could pave the way toward $1.20—a key psychological level likely to drive further interest among traders.

ADA on-chain signals support the accumulation narrative

Meanwhile, on-chain exchange activity further strengthens the bullish outlook.

At the time of writing, spot exchange flows showed that $16.44 million worth of ADA exited trading platforms, compared to $13.41 million in inflows.

This net withdrawal indicates that holders are moving their tokens into long-term storage or DeFi protocols, a behavior commonly associated with accumulation rather than distribution. 

Meanwhile, the Total Value Locked (TVL) in Cardano-based DeFi stood at $395.43 million, dipping just 2% in 24 hours.

While this decline may reflect minor repositioning, it does not align with panic-driven selling, especially when considered alongside consistent outflows and rising sentiment.

Transaction activity sees retail rise as whales retreat

Network activity paints a mixed picture.

Transactions below the $1 threshold have surged by 250%, suggesting that grassroots participation is on the rise. However, the higher-value transaction bands—ranging from $100k to $10 million—have declined by over 80%. 

That said, it appears retail and dApp-level users are stepping in, likely laying the groundwork for a broader demand wave. If sentiment remains elevated, whales may re-enter, propelling further upside.

Investor composition reveals growing retail conviction

In fact, ownership distribution further supports the narrative of shifting market dynamics.

Over the last thirty days, whale holdings have dropped by 1.68%, while long-term investor participation has increased by 1.60%. Retail addresses also saw a 0.72% uptick. 

This redistribution suggests that ADA is transitioning into the hands of more committed and smaller-scale investors.

Although whales appear to be reducing exposure, the strengthening base formed by investors and retail participants may serve as a solid launchpad for the next leg upward.

ADA is likely to reclaim $0.70 and test higher levels

ADA appears poised to reclaim the $0.70 mark soon, driven by bullish sentiment, solid technicals, exchange outflows, and retail momentum.

The current market structure supports a move toward $0.70, with a potential breakout past $0.7626 if momentum holds steady.

Cardano seems positioned to recover key levels and may begin a broader upward trend in the near term.